Richgrove, California Weather Forecast Discussion

745
FXUS66 KHNX 131833
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1133 AM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025
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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Seasonable temperatures are expected for the weekend with a
warmup to above average next week. Triple digit chances return
Tuesday and Wednesday for the San Joaquin Valley and Mojave
Desert.
2. Smoke will continue to linger as the Garnet Fire continues
to burn but with improving conditions; the smoke will not be as
thick or widespread.
3. Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late next week as
moisture tracks over the region from the south.
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.DISCUSSION...
In the wake of a trough exiting the western United States today,
a weak ridge will build in over California, strengthening into
the upcoming week. As a result, temperatures will warm above
season averages, with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the
upper 90s. For both days, there is a 70 to 100 percent chance to
exceed 95 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert.
However, other than south of Bakersfield, western Kings County,
and in Ridgecrest, there is less than a five percent chance to
exceed 100 degrees; the areas listed have a 10 to 40 percent
chance for these temperatures. The stagnant air created by the
building high pressure will cause winds across the region to
largely be relatively light and diurnal, except for the typical
wind-prone areas such as Pacheco Pass, Lake Isabella, and the
Mojave Desert Slopes. This may come with a cost though, as the
subsidence aloft associated with the high pressure may result in
smoke from the Garnet Fire being trapped nearer to the surface
and unable to disperse effectively.
Towards the end of the week, ensemble guidance points towards a
potential tropical system developing in the eastern Pacific
south of Baja California. While this system is anticipated to
track further west away from the coast, outflow moisture is
projected to be picked up by a localized area of low pressure
sliding into California Thursday into Friday. This pattern will
be favorable for showers and thunderstorms to move through
central California, especially in the foothill and mountain
areas, with a 10 to 15 percent chance for convective development
as things stand.
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.AVIATION...
18Z Update:
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California
interior for the next 24 hours. Areas of Dense Smoke aloft along
the Sierra Nevada over eastern Fresno County and nearby
counties from the Garnet Fire may impact visibility.
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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
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.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
public/aviation...McCoy
idss/pio..........Molina
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion