Riffle, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

473
FXUS61 KRLX 120546
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
146 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to keep the region dry for the
foreseeable future. Temperatures will be on the upswing into
next week with a warming trend in place.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 137 AM Friday...
High pressure remains overhead today and tonight. Valley fog is
expected this morning and could dense in spots. Any fog will
yield to the persistent trend of dry weather and mostly clear
skies upon its dissipation later this morning. Lowered dew
points this afternoon after a review of obs today. Did not trend
as low as the HRRR and the HREF due to lack of wind expected
today; NNE flow is expected to be light, remaining between 5-10
mph at the max. Humidity values will be in the 30s across much
of the area this afternoon with a few locations dropping into
the upper 20s. That said, conditions will be dry enough to
increase risk for wildfire start, however winds will be light
enough to prevent significant spread so headlines are not
warranted at this time.
High temperatures will be around to a few degrees above normal
this afternoon:
Lowlands- upper 70s to mid 80s
Mountains- upper 60s to low 80s
Clear and cool again tonight with subsidence causing strong radiational
cooling once more. This will likely lead to another round of valley
fog later tonight into Saturday morning. RH values will recover
overnight due to the expected cooler temperatures. Low temperatures
will be a few degrees below normal tonight with the forecast
area dropping into the upper 40s to the mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...
Dry weather continues into the weekend as an upper level ridge
begins to build in from the west. This will reinforce the surface
high pressure already in place, leading to a stretch of tranquil
weather. Temperatures will continue their warming trend, with highs
on Saturday reaching the low to mid 80s in the lowlands and upper
70s in the mountains, a few degrees above normal for this time of
year. Overnight lows will remain pleasant, primarily in the
upper 40s to 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...
The upper level ridge is expected to remain the dominant feature
through the long term, keeping conditions dry and temperatures above
normal. Highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s for much of
the period. There is some signal that an area of low pressure could
develop off Atlantic coast and try to drift in underneath the
ridge by Tuesday/Wednesday. While confidence is low at this time,
this feature would introduce enhanced moisture into our area by the
middle of next week increasing precipitation chances. For now, given
low confidence, the forecast reflects central guidance, which
remains dry through the next 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 AM Friday...
Valley/river fog is expected to form this morning, mostly at
sites CRW, EKN, and PKB. EKN and PKB could see IFR restrictions
or lower as a result, but fog has stayed at the surface the past
few nights, so CRW remains questionable on impacts this morning.
It is possible that IFR or lower could occur around or at
sunrise as fog will be at its most dense.
Otherwise, VFR resumes by ~14z with fog dissipation. Winds will
be calm this morning, then NNE and light in speed today.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of fog may
vary this morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                   FRI 09/12/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions or lower are possible in valley fog each morning.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...LTC

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion