Rio Grande Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

144
FXUS61 KRLX 130524
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
124 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather stretches across the work week amid strong ridging
aloft. A moisture starved cold frontal passage around midweek
will bring cooler temperatures through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 125 AM Monday...
Coastal low pressure early this morning centered near the
Delmarva region continues to spread low clouds into the eastern
half of the forecast area. Coupled with breezy winds above the
surface, the chances of river valley fog will be low heading
into the predawn hours. This low pressure system is anticipated
to hug the coastline throughout the day with little to no
progress out of the region. As a result, much of the northeast
WV mountains will remain masked beneath clouds throughout the
period, while the lowlands will escape the brunt of this cloud
coverage and should still receive peeks of sunshine during the
daytime hours. Breezy winds could also be observed today due to
the nearby coastal low as strong winds aloft mix down to the
surface after sunrise this morning.
Outside of some light sprinkles entrenched within the mountain
stratus deck today, dry weather will rule the roost across the
forecast area. This theme is anticipated to stretch through the
majority of the work week in response to strong ridging aloft
over the heart of the country.
The center of the disturbance hovering over the eastern seaboard
will begin to navigate further into the Atlantic late tonight
into Tuesday, which should allow profile winds to gradually ease
overnight. This may allow for better river valley fog production
during the predawn hours early Tuesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 AM Monday...
Quiet weather continues on Tuesday in response to high pressure
both at the surface and aloft. Daytime temperatures will rise
slightly above their climatological norm for this time of year.
A moisture starved cold frontal passage is slated to occur
around midweek, followed by a cooler airmass settling over the
area. With the center of this high pressure system anchoring
overhead for both Wednesday and Thursday nights, efficient
radiational cooling will yield dropping temperatures near or
below freezing for much of the forecast area. Frost development
is strongly possible in this setup, so will continue to monitor
forecast trends for future frost/freeze headlines.
Otherwise, dry weather will remain triumphant throughout the
course of the work week under the guise of strong ridging aloft.
A slight increase in cloud coverage will be noted Wednesday
afternoon in the midst of the cold front, but little to no
chance of precipitation is anticipated in response to the
abundant amount of dry air that will be in place with the
aforementioned ridge.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 AM Monday...
The stretch of dry weather that will dominate the work week will
cruise into Friday as we remain under the influence of strong
ridging aloft. Model guidance shows this upper level feature
sliding eastward late in the week into the weekend as a digging
trough navigates across the country. Accompanying the trough
will be low pressure at the surface and its attendant cold
front. Precipitation chances return to the forecast area for the
weekend as a result, and could bring beneficial rainfall to
areas still stricken with drought conditions this season. Active
weather rounds out the forecast period as the front continues to
make progress through the Central Appalachians heading into
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 AM Monday...
The combination of breezy northerly flow above the surface and
low level stratus building into the area early this morning will
throw a wrench in fog development overnight. Enough decoupling
may take place just before 12Z at CRW that could yield nearby
river valley fog, but otherwise opted to trend down on vsby
restrictions and focus more on ceiling changes with this
morning`s forecast.
Downstream METARs in Maryland and Virginia show MVFR ceilings
settling in with this approaching stratus deck, and is progged
to overtake our mountain terminals over the next few hours and
then hover through much of the day. The rest of the forecast
area will likely only observe mid to high level cloud coverage
that should not impose any flight rule changes during the day.
Surface wind gusts nearing 15kts will be possible across all
sites this afternoon before a coastal system departs
northeastward.
Better decoupling processes will support river valley fog
development shortly after the conclusion of the valid TAF
period late tonight into Tuesday morning.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of restrictions
under river valley fog and low stratus may vary from the
forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                   MON 10/13/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible each morning this week.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion