Robbinston, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

315
FXUS61 KCAR 031806 CCA
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
206 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains to our south into tonight. A weak cold
front approaches from the north late tonight, pushes down into
Maine on Saturday, then lifts back north as a warm front
Saturday night. The region is then in between high pressure
offshore and a storm system tracking across southern Canada
Sunday and Monday. The cold front associated with this storm
system approaches Monday night, then crosses the area Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure then builds in on
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
This Afternoon...
Quiet afternoon with mostly clear skies and just a couple
high/mid level clouds. Surface high pressure is centered well to
our south, with low-level W/SW flow and a decent W/SW breeze
around 10 mph ahead of the approaching cold front, which as of
early afternoon is still a few hundred miles NW of Quebec City.
The atmosphere is still quite dry, especially at low and mid-
levels. Temperatures are warmer than average this afternoon,
topping out around 70.
Tonight...
Weak upper level shortwave and weak surface cold front continue
approaching from the NW, likely getting into far Northern Maine
toward dawn Saturday. The front is very weak and moisture-
starved, and conditions tonight will likely remain mostly clear
ahead of the front. Lows will be 5-10F warmer than last night,
as the airmass overall will be a bit warmer, plus there will be
a few more clouds and more of a breeze just off the surface that
will make radiational cooling less than ideal. Lows tonight in
the low 40s to low 50s. Can`t rule out patchy river/lake fog,
but not expecting too much.
Saturday...
Weak cold front slides south through the area in the morning.
Again, this front is quite weak, with only isolated showers
mainly over NE Aroostook, and dry elsewhere. A few more clouds
behind the front, with perhaps partly cloudy skies over the
north especially mid to late morning. Only a slight temperature
drop with the front in the north, with highs in the mid to upper
60s, but actually warmer than Friday Downeast (mid to upper
70s) thanks to the shift in wind from SW to NW with an offshore
component preventing marine moderation in temperatures. NW
breeze 5-10 mph with gusts to 15-20 mph.
Saturday Night...
Very weak surface high pressure builds in as an upper level
ridge begins to amplify just to our west. Still some mid-high
level clouds streaming in from the NW, with partly cloudy skies.
Can`t rule out a few showers in the extreme north, but vast
majority of models keep any light precip north of the border.
Can`t rule out patchy valley fog again. Lows in the upper 30s to
upper 40s with light winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deep layered ridging crosses the area Sunday and Sunday night,
with its axis moving to the east on Monday. The result will be
continued dry conditions, with minimal cloud cover Sunday and
Sunday night, with some increasing high clouds on Monday.
Highs Sunday should be around 15 degrees above normal, lows
10-15 degrees above normal Sunday night, and highs around 20
degrees above normal on Monday. The highs on Monday could reach
record levels at some locations. Refer to the climate section of
the AFD for details.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The region is under SW flow aloft Monday night-Tuesday, as a
northern stream trough approaches from the west. The forcing
should be far enough west to keep things dry Monday night, but
should see increasing chances for showers, especially over the
northwest 1/3 of the CWA on Tuesday.
A northern stream trough approaches Tuesday night then crosses
the area Wednesday. There should be a decent round of showers
ahead of the trough Tuesday night. For now have held off on
mentioning thunder, but if the system speeds up or slow downs so
that the precipitation occurs during daylight hours, then could
see a need to add it in if that occurs. Precipitation should
quickly taper off early Wednesday from NW to SE as the system
exits.
Northwest flow sets up Wednesday night-Thursday. It should be
dry with minimal cloud cover.
Northern stream ridging crosses the area Thursday night, it
should be dry.
Even with a northern stream shortwave trough crossing the area
on Friday, the low-mid levels should be sufficiently dry to
preclude any precipitation.
Temperatures Monday night-Tuesday night should be above normal,
with record highs possible yet again on Tuesday (see the climate
section of the AFD for details). Temperatures should be near
normal Wednesday, then below normal Wednesday night-Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Rest of This Afternoon...
VFR everywhere. Generally SW winds around 10 kts, decreasing to
5 kts toward sunset.
Tonight...
Mainly VFR. Can`t totally rule out localized fog, but chance at
any TAF site is less than 20 percent. SW wind 5 kts or less. NW
winds from roughly 3-6z get strong enough aloft for potential
marginal wind shear. Didn`t put it in TAFs for now, but will
keep an eye on it.
Saturday...
Mainly VFR. Can`t rule out intermittent MVFR ceilings from about
13-17z from PQI north, but think that if MVFR occurs, it will
not be the predominant conditions. Left out of TAF for now. Give
FVE a 40 percent chance of having MVFR at some point, and 25
percent for CAR/PQI. Less than 25 percent chance of MVFR
ceilings south of PQI. NW wind 5-10 kts with gusts to 15 kts.
Saturday Night...
Starting out VFR. Patchy fog after 5z could bring localized
IFR. A bit better chance than tonight, with about a 30 percent
chance of IFR or lower at PQI/HUL/BGR/BHB. Light winds.
SHORT TERM:
Sunday-Monday night...VFR, except for MVFR or lower possible in
patchy fog late at night/early in the morning. SW winds G15KT
possible Sunday afternoon. LLWS possible Sunday night. SW winds
15-20KT possible Monday.
Tuesday...MVFR possible late at Northern terminals, otherwise
VFR. SW winds G15-20KT possible.
Tuesday night...MVFR or lower possible.
Wednesday...VFR. NE-NW winds G15-25KT possible.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Below small craft through Saturday night with little
or no marine fog.
SHORT TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters should
limit winds to 10 kt or less and seas to 2 ft or less from
Sunday through Monday morning. The pressure gradient increases
Monday afternoon and stays relatively tight through Wednesday,
with conditions right around SCA levels possible during this
time frame as a result.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No wetting rain in sight through Tuesday. Could see some gusty
southwest winds to 15-20 mph both Monday and Tuesday afternoon.
Good RH recovery expected during the overnight hours the
next few nights, especially in valleys. Afternoon RHs will be
mainly in the 40s to low 50s the next few days.
The next chance for wetting rains is Tuesday night, with the
potential for some place between 1/4 and 3/4 of an inch of
rainfall. Wednesday should see a return of dry and much cooler
conditions with gusty northerly winds.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Saturday October 4th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               79/2017        68
Bangor                79/2017        77
Millinocket           79/2001        75
Houlton               78/2001        69
Record High Temperatures for Monday October 6th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               74/1946        81
Bangor                84/1946        80
Millinocket           82/1946        81
Houlton               73/1957        80
Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               76/2016        75
Bangor                84/1946        79
Millinocket           81/1946        80
Houlton               76/2016        78
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Foisy
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...Foisy/Maloit
Marine...Foisy/Maloit
Fire Weather...Foisy/Maloit
Climate...Foisy/Maloit

NWS car Office Area Forecast Discussion