Robinson Lake California Weather Forecast Discussion

955
FXUS65 KVEF 142012
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
112 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A potent, early-season storm system brings gusty winds and
  precipitation to the region today, including accumulating snow
  above 7000-8000 feet.
* Temperatures will be well below normal most of the week, with
  freezing morning low temperatures across the Owens Valley and
  Southern Great Basin Wednesday morning.
* Pleasant conditions for the remainder of the week with a gradual
  warming trend by the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.
Our well-advertised Pacific low has arrived. Widespread 30-45 mph
wind gusts are begin reported across the area, and will continue
through the evening hours. Wind Advisories remain in effect for most
of southeastern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and the Mojave
Preserve until 9PM tonight. Farther west, precipitation has been
spilling over the Sierra into western Inyo County all morning, but
has been slow to progress eastward. Rainfall amounts in the Owens
Valley are 0.10" - 0.75" as of 1PM, greatest in central and southern
portions of the valley. Higher up, sensors in the eastern Sierra
suggest the snow level is currently around 7500-8000 feet, though
these should decrease to ~6500` by early evening. Sierra SNOTEL
sites have picked up ~6" thus far, with more on the way. Models
show the main band of precipitation sliding eastward this
afternoon and evening, bringing rain/snow to primarily areas along
and north of I-15. For the Owens Valley and southern Great Basin
valleys, amounts generally 0.25"-0.75" with localized areas around
1". For the Mojave Desert valleys, 0.25" or less, decreasing with
southward extent. On the wintry side, minor to moderate snow
impacts continue to be expected in the Sierra, White, and Spring
mountains where winter headlines remain in effect through tonight.
In the Sierra and White mountains, impacts should largely be
above 7000 feet, while in the Spring Mountains they`re more likely
above 8000 feet.
Precipitation chances exit the area tomorrow morning, leaving light
breezes and notably cooler temperatures to dominate the weather.
Wednesday morning lows in the Owens Valley are likely (75%) to be
below freezing, prompting the Freeze Warning for this area.
Additionally, it looks like the valleys of Lincoln County could see
their first freeze Thursday morning. If trends continue, a Freeze
Warning will likely be needed. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to be
~15 degrees below normal for mid-October, with Vegas likely (75%)
not breaking out of the 60s. Temperatures will then gradually
moderate back to seasonable values by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty
south-southeast winds continue into the early afternoon, turning
more south-southwest as precipitation approaches from the west.
Gusts 25-35 knots. Rain potential at the airport has become a bit
more uncertain as the band of precipitation may begin to break up.
Thus, opted to change the TEMPO to a PROB30. However, vicinity
showers and CIGs around 8kft are likely (70%). Should precipitation
hold together as it moves into the valley, CIGs may drop to ~6kft
(30% chance). Rain chances push east by 05z-07z, leaving elevated
southwest breezes and improving sky conditions it their wake.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty conditions
anticipated across the region today as a Pacific system moves in.
Winds will be more south-southeasterly ahead of the precipitation,
and more southwesterly within/behind the precipitation. Peak gusts
generally 25-40 knots. Best rain chances along and northwest of
Interstate 15. Within precipitation, expect lowered CIGs and reduced
visibilities, especially in the southern Great Basin and Owens Valley
where chances of MVFR conditions are ~50% and IFR conditions are 10-
20%. As precipitation pushes eastward overnight, sky conditions will
gradually improve in its wake.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Woods
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion