Rock City Falls, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

598
FXUS61 KALY 070550
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
150 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
On the backside of a departing frontal boundary, some lingering
light rain showers will impact southeastern areas for the start
of today. Otherwise, cooler and less humid conditions will be
building into the region. With high pressure in control, dry
and comfortable weather is expected through the upcoming week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 150 AM EDT...The surface cold front responsible for the
showers and thunderstorms on Saturday is now located just east
of the region, with the boundary draped along the mid Atlantic
coast northeast into eastern New England. A wave of low pressure
has been developing along the front, which will keep the front
fairly stationary through the morning hours. With the front
still close by, IR satellite imagery continues to show fairly
widespread clouds across the region, with the back edge still
well to the west across western New York.
Regional radar imagery still shows some bands of light showers
on the backside of the boundary as well. With the low pressure
area moving up the front, some additional showers will be
impacting parts of the region through the morning hours, mainly
from about the Capital Region on south and east. The deepest
moisture and higher rainfall rates will all be well southeast of
the area, so any additional light should be fairly light.
Additional rainfall amounts will range from a few hundredths in
the Albany area to about a half to two thirds of an inch over
Northwestern Connecticut. In addition, some light showers may
also impact the western Adirondacks, as lake effect rain showers
will be occurring off Lake Ontario thanks to the cooler temps
aloft, although this precip also looks very light.
The front will be slowly drifting eastward once the low pressure
along the boundary lifts northward. This take may take until the
afternoon hours. While most places should be done with the rain
by the late morning hours, it may take until the mid afternoon
or so to end in NW CT and the Berkshires. Clouds will be
gradually decreasing from west to east across the region. It
look mostly cloudy for the entire area through the morning, but
skies will become partly to mostly sunny during the afternoon
from west to east.
With the clouds and additional showers around, temps will be
held down and will be noticeably cooler than the past few days.
Most spots will only reach the 60s, although the immediate
Hudson Valley may reach into the low 70s. Dewpoints will be down
into the 50s, which will be lower than the past few days.
All precip will be done for Sunday night, as the front pushes
farther offshore into the western Atlantic.  With the clearing
skies, it will be a cooler night for tonight with lows down into
the 40s. Some upper 30s can`t be ruled out for the Adirondacks.
There may still be a light breeze, so widespread fog isn`t
expected, although some patchy fog may start to develop late at
night in areas sheltered by the terrain.
High pressure will be building into the region from the Great
Lakes and Midwest for Monday. This will end any lake effect
precip/clouds thanks to the lowering inversion heights and skies
will be fairly clear. Plenty of sun is expected on Monday,
although temps will slightly below normal thanks to the shallow
trough aloft keeping some cooler temps in place. Highs will be
in the mid 60s to mid 70s for Monday. With good radiational
cooling, temps will be chilly on the Monday night for the entire
area. All areas will be done into the 40s, with some mid to
upper 30s over the Adirondacks. Some patchy frost can`t be ruled
out in the Adirondacks, although most of this will be within the
high terrain and within the sparsely populated portions of the
central Adirondacks.
High pressure will be staying in control for the mid week and
will be slowly drifting eastward. Skies will be staying partly
to mostly clear each day. Low pressure will be developing along
a stalled boundary off the Southeast and mid Atlantic States,
but this will be staying off to the south and away from the area
thanks to the high pressure in place. Upper level heights and
temps aloft will be slowly rising through the mid week, so
daytime temps will be rising each day. Valley highs will go from
the mid 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday to the upper 70s by
Thursday. Still, it will be rather comfortable, with dewpoints
staying in the 40s and 50s each day. Overnight lows will
generally be in the 40s, so there won`t be any threat for frost
through mid week.
A moisture starved northern stream cold front looks to cross
sometime around Thursday or so. Aside from some passing clouds,
no precip is expected with this frontal passage as moisture is
limited. Temps and dewpoints may drop slightly behind the
front, with valley temps back down into the upper 60s to low 70s
for highs for Friday and Saturday. It will remain rather
conformable for the late week with a partly to mostly clear sky
still in place.
With the dry weather and little expected rainfall, drought and
fire weather concerns may be increased. However, RH values
should stay above 30 percent each day and the nearby high
pressure area will keep surface winds very light. There should
be a recovery each overnight with dew formation. Some patchy
valley fog is possible in the late night or early morning hours
as well, especially for areas near bodies of water and in low
lying valleys.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...Variable flying conditions exist across the
terminals early this morning with light rain forcing MVFR visibility
at KPSF, low stratus LIFR at KGFL, and non-impactful conditions
maintaining VFR ceilings and visibilities at KALB and KPOU.
Variability will remain common through the remainder of the
overnight period. Highly concentrated low-level moisture locked
in at KGFL will force continued periods of LIFR conditions, both
in ceiling height and/or visibility, until gradual improvements
to MVFR and then VFR are expected later this morning. Light
showers look to continue to impact KPSF and should also make an
appearance at KPOU, forcing MVFR ceilings (KPOU) and visibility
(KPSF) through early this morning. KALB may also see a stray
shower or two, but is not expected to deviate from its current
VFR conditions.
VFR conditions, once reinforced later this morning (or early this
afternoon in the case of KPOU), will then prevail through the end of
the 06z TAF cycle with ceiling heights gradually rising throughout
the afternoon and evening before almost completely dissipating by
tonight. Winds throughout the period will blow out of the northwest
at speeds under 10 kt everywhere except KALB which could see a 10-
12kt sustained wind by this afternoon.
Outlook...
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
DISCUSSION...Frugis
AVIATION...Gant

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion