Rock Mills Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

047
FXUS64 KBMX 091803
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
103 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals an upper ridge building
in out west as a shortwave trough slides across the southeast.
While most will remain dry today, we do have low chances for
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as surface convergences
is maximized along an inverted surface trough. Any activity will
be relatively short-lived and generally shift from the NE to SW as
the trough axis shifts towards Mississippi. Generally rain-free
conditions are in store on Friday as drier air spreads across the
region. With that said, there is a very low (10-15%) chance for
precip across our far SE areas as a few ribbons of H5 vorticity
wrap around an upper low to our east.
Temperatures will be rather pleasant over the next couple of days
with lows in the 50s/60s and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.
95/Castillo
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
Very little change needed to the long term forecast. Dry conditions
continue as upper level ridging builds in. This will lead to a
gradual warming trend over the weekend into next week with highs
rebounding back into the mid to upper 80s.
The latest Drought Monitor update was released this morning. It
was no surprise to see drought conditions worsening and expanding
across the region. With little rain in the forecast, this trend
will likely continue.
95/Castillo
Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
Over the weekend, a large area of low pressure is expected to
develop north of the Bahamas near the Carolina coast, placing our
area on the subsident (dry) side of this system.  Temperatures
will gradually trend upward during the weekend into the upcoming
week as sprawling 500 mb ridge builds in from the west.
87/Grantham
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
GOES satellite imagery reveals some low to mid level
clouds spreading across Central AL. This will lead to brief MVFR
ceilings over the next couple of hours. Winds will generally be out
of the east from 5-10 knots through much of this cycle. However, winds
will pick up at ASN/AUO/MGM tomorrow morning with gusts around 20
knots likely. VFR conditions prevail overnight through Friday
morning. There is a low chance for isolated showers/storms this
afternoon. However, confidence was not high enough to include in
the TAFs at this time.
95/Castillo
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
There is a low chance of isolated showers/storms this afternoon
and evening. However, rainfall amounts will be very limited. Min
RH values will range from 40-60% this afternoon, dropping to
35-45% for Friday through the weekend. East-northeast winds, from
8-12 MPH, will continue on Friday. Outdoor burning remains highly
discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     54  76  52  79 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    55  75  53  78 /  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  59  78  56  79 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  60  80  54  82 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      58  79  53  82 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      58  75  56  79 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  60  78  58  81 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        58  75  56  79 /  10  10   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...95/Castillo
LONG TERM....95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion