Rockford Lake State Recreation Area Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

134
FXUS63 KOAX 151948
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
248 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widely scattered showers lingering through the remainder of
  this afternoon, then turning breezy and warmer on Thursday.
- A chance (maximum PoPs of 30-50%) of shower and thunderstorms
  Thursday night into Friday night, with an additional round of
  showers possible (15-25% PoPs) Saturday into Saturday night.
- Becoming windy Saturday afternoon into evening, with patchy
  frost possible in northeast Nebraska on Sunday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Late this afternoon through Thursday:
The current upper-air pattern features a deep trough across the
Interior West, with an associated closed low over NV, and
downstream ridging over the central U.S. Between those
features, early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a couple
low-amplitude disturbances tracking through eastern CO and NE.
Forcing for ascent attendant to those features are contributing
to scattered showers and thunderstorms, the eastern-most of
which are currently moving through portions of eastern NE and
southwest IA. The associated cloud cover has slowed daytime
heating, so this afternoon`s highs have been adjusted downward
in those areas.
The ongoing convection in our area is expected to shift to the
east by late afternoon/early evening; however, it remains
unclear as to whether scattered showers and thunderstorms
currently over southwest NE will eventually reach our area later
today.
On Thursday, the NV mid/upper-level low mentioned above is
forecast to accelerate northeast into the northern High Plains,
which will induce the deepening of a surface low over the
Dakotas, and gusty, south winds across our area. Given the
current vegetative greenness and minimum relative humidity of
35-45%, we don`t currently anticipate any wildfire concerns.
Temperatures are likely to be warmer than those today, with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Thursday night into Friday night:
An elongated vorticity ribbon trailing the lead low moving into
south-central Canada will progress east through the mid-MO
Valley in tandem with a weakening surface front. Forcing
associated with that feature coupled with warm air and moisture
advection along a low-level jet will support the potential for
showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the surface
boundary. Accordingly, this forecast update will continue to
advertise 30-50% PoPs overspreading the area Thursday night into
Friday, with similar precipitation chances lingering in southeast
NE and southwest IA Friday night.
The models indicate a corridor of stronger instability
developing ahead of the front across northeast KS into northwest
MO on Friday afternoon, which could support a few strong to
severe storms. So, we`ll be keeping an eye on those details, in
the event that the boundary slows, leading to an increasing
severe risk in far southeast NE and southwest IA.
Highs on Friday are expected to be mainly in the 70s.
This weekend:
The 12z global models are in good agreement in showing a
rapidly intensifying mid-level trough over the central U.S. on
Saturday, with an associated cold front surging through our
area. Winds will strengthen considerably from the northwest
behind the front, and we`ll be monitoring model trends to
determine the extent of any wildfire risk. The forecast will
indicate 15-25% PoPs Saturday into Saturday night to account for
any shower activity occurring along and behind the cold front.
Highs on Saturday will range from 60s behind the front to 70s
ahead of it. Decreasing winds and the influx of cooler air into
the region could support patchy frost across northeast NE on
Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday are expected to top out in the
60s.
Early next week:
Latest ensemble mean data have come into slightly better
agreement in the progression of another mid-level trough
through the north-central U.S. in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe.
A surface front will likely accompany that mid-level system,
with 15-20% PoPs included in the forecast on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Areal coverage of ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms
from south-central NE to the KOMA vicinity has been poorly
handled by the short-term models, leading to uncertainty in how
that convection will evolve this afternoon. For now, have
included -SHRA at KOMA and KLNK for the next couple of hours.
Stubborn LIFR ceilings at KOFK are expected to lift within
the next hour, with prevailing VFR conditions thereafter.
South-southeast surface winds are forecast to increase to 10-13
kt this afternoon, with higher gusts possible at KOFK and KLNK.
LLWS appears most probable at KOFK overnight. Strong south
winds develop by 15-16z on Thursday at all terminal locations.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion