Rocky Point, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

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FXUS66 KSEW 251052
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
352 AM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Zonal flow will continue through Friday. A frontal
system will graze the northern portion of the state, bringing the
chance of showers. Widespread rain on Sunday and Monday as a frontal
system pushes through the area. Unsettled and cooler conditions are
favored to continue into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Pockets of patchy fog may
form early this morning over portions of Western Washington. Latest
satellite imagery already shows some patchy fog starting to develop
along portions of the coast, southwest interior, and Puget Sound.
Zonal flow will continue over Western Washington today through
Friday as an upper level trough moves inland over Canada. As the
system pushes through Canada, shower activity may clip the northern
portion of Western Washington: northern Olympic Peninsula, San Juan
Islands, northern interior, and northern Cascades. QPF amounts are
generally expected to be light, with the highest amounts likely over
the north coast and northern Cascades. In addition, zonal flow over
the region will generate onshore flow that will keep smoke to the
east of the Cascades.
Temperatures today will be in the 50s along the coast/water and 60s
along the interior. Cloud cover will increase throughout the
afternoon and most will clear out by tonight. Southwesterly flow
will bring slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday, with high
temperatures in the low to mid 70s in the interior and low to mid
60s along the coast/water.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Ensemble guidance is in good
agreement that a troughing pattern will persist over Western
Washington next week, keeping the chance of rain in the forecast. A
frontal system is expected to move over Western Washington Sunday
into Monday, bringing widespread precipitation to the region. A
trough will follow behind the frontal system, bringing additional
rainfall through midweek.
Temperatures on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However,
temperatures will cooldown on Monday. High temperatures will be in
the low to mid 60s in the interior and mid to upper 50s along the
coast/water Monday through midweek.
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&&
.AVIATION...Southwest flow will increase aloft into Thursday as the
upper ridge axis shifts eastward. Weak onshore flow tonight and
clearing will likely brings many ares of IFR fog or stratus for the
coastal areas, Strait of Juan de Fuca, and many Puget Sound
terminals. Expect coverage to be more scattered with stratus forming
in place rather than a strong push. Regardless, expect improvement
in areas with low ceilings and/or visibility toward 18z. Additional
mid and high clouds increase through the day ahead of a weak front.
Expect west or northwest surface winds to develop for most by the
afternoon.
KSEA...VFR conditions under clear skies and light winds early this
morning. Expect IFR stratus to develop 12-14z in vicinity of
terminal with around 35% chance of development at KSEA. Any stratus
will scatter toward 18z Thursday. Surface winds light and variable
this morning, but becoming increasingly from the northwest this
afternoon at 6-7 kt. Increasing mid/high clouds this afternoon ahead
of weak front, with stronger onshore push expected to bring stratus
to terminal Thursday night/Friday morning.   Cullen
&&
.MARINE...High pressure weakening over the waters today with
a weak front clipping the northern portion of the waters late.
Expect to see current advisory conditions across parts of the
coastal waters to decrease through the morning, with the current
advisory due to expire at 11 AM. Moderate confidence that conditions
will subside ahead of schedule this morning. Attention that turns to
stronger west/northwest winds tonight into Friday. Confidence isn`t
quite high enough to issue another SCA for the Strait yet, but
decent support from HREF and and NBM guidance to at least make this
a possibility (40-60% chance) so will hold off for now and let the
next shift refine the timing and extent. Seas will build to near or
above 10 ft over the outer coastal waters Friday. A stronger front
will reach the waters late Sunday, followed by a trailing
disturbance into Monday. This could be the first stronger system of
the season, with seas and winds both potentially reaching impactful
levels.   Cullen
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
     To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$

NWS sew Office Area Forecast Discussion