Roe Cemetery Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

732
FXUS63 KJKL 150533
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
133 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather continues across eastern
  Kentucky through the work week.
- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
  averages for the duration of the forecast period.
- While confidence in specific details remains low, the next
  chance of showers/storms will come this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
Some model guidance continues to indicate low stratus developing
to our northeast and moving southwest into eastern Kentucky
toward morning. So far, there is no evidence of anything but
valley fog developing from northeast to southwest from central WV
through southeastern Kentucky. Will continue to monitor trends,
but confidence in low stratus development is trending lower than
what it already was.
The hourly T/Td grids were updated in addition to the Sky grids,
with the latest hourly observations used for the initialization of
the temperature grids.
UPDATE Issued at 924 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
There remains very little that needs updating with this mid-
evening update. Continued to tweak Sky grids, with considerable
uncertainty as to the degree of stratus formation toward morning
across the area. Used a blend of the NBM, HREF, and GFS1hr Sky
grids through 12z Wednesday.
UPDATE Issued at 628 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
Lowered the Sky grids in far eastern Kentucky along/near the
Virginia border through the evening as stratus has moved south
into Virginia. Otherwise, just updated the hourly T/Td grids using
the latest hourly observations as the initialization for forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 311 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
Despite low stratus across portions of the area earlier in the
day, mostly sunny skies now prevail across all but far eastern
Kentucky (roughly east of US-23), with temperatures rising through
the upper 60s to mid-70s. Temperatures remain closer to 60F in
the far east where the lingering stratus persists. The latest
surface analysis shows weak northeasterly flow across our region,
courtesy of clockwise circulation around a strong ~1034 mb high
over southeast Manitoba. A stalled frontal boundary is noted well
to our north, from Lower Ontario through Lower Michigan and out
onto the Central Plains. Aloft, 500 hPa ridging dominates from
the Central Gulf Coast northward into the Upper Midwest and Great
Lake. A disturbance is riding over the ridge across the Upper
Mississippi Valley.
That disturbance will continue to traverse the ridge this
evening, then propagate down its eastern side on Wednesday as it
interacts with additional northern stream energy sinking southward
from Eastern Canada. Meanwhile, the ridge will continue to
translate eastward and slowly subside, as its attendant surface
high similarly weakens and passes over northern Ontario.
Northerly low-level flow will persist across the Northeast US
through the short-term period, sending the aforementioned frontal
boundary sagging southward to eventually cross eastern Kentucky on
Wednesday night into early Thursday. Model guidance from the
RAP13 and SPC HREF both hint at a possible stratus deck advecting
in from the northeast tonight, but overall confidence is low due
to a lack of broad model support. However, fog in the sheltered
river valleys is almost certain. Additional low stratus could
develop again Wednesday night with the frontal passage, but should
be limited overall by a lowering subsidence inversion.
In terms of sensible weather, cool and dry weather will continue
with persistent north to northeast breezes during the day and
light, variable winds at night. Mostly clear skies can be
expected, though patchy low stratus cannot be ruled out tonight or
Wednesday night. Nocturnal radiational fog is almost certain in
the typically favored sheltered river valleys. Wednesday`s highs
will be similar to today, ranging from the lower to middle 70s.
Nighttime lows trend cooler, in the mid 40s to lower 50s tonight,
settling back into the 40s for all locations on Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
A ridge of high pressure will remain over Kentucky through Friday.
Thursday morning, the HREF is hinting at some low level clouds
around The Big Sandy, and with light northeasterly flow a low
stratus deck could be present such as this morning. However, looking
at some sounding profiles and model output from the NAM, drier air
(RH 

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion