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Rogers Cemetery Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

654
FXUS62 KFFC 141039
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 639 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 638 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

- Dry conditions to continue with no meaningful precipitation expected through the second half of the week. Potential rain and thunderstorm chances this weekend.

- Temperature warm through the weekend with a cool off early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 638 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Ridging and high pressure will be the main story for the short term with dry and sunny conditions expected through the period. As with the past couple of days, did blend in NBM10 into the dewpoints to account for the dry air in place. With the pattern dominated by high pressure and little to no cloud cover temps will easily warm to the low to mid 80s today at ~10 degrees above normal. Tomorrow will see much of the same weather with temps in the low to mid 80s (~10 degrees above normal) and clear skies. Morning temps in the mid to upper 50s are forecast for the next two mornings which is still ~5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 638 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Not much has changed for the second half of the work week. Conditions continue to look dry with ridging bringing temperatures to around 80 degrees. A feature to watch through the period will be the evolution of the cut-off low as it circles the upper high over the northern Gulf. This feature will be important in conditions Saturday night through next Monday.

As we move into mid weekend, upper level troughing over the central CONUS drives across the Midwest into the Ohio River Valley. Ensemble guidance shows uncertainty in the progression of the ridge-trough wave pattern as well as the timing of the cut-off low ejection back over The Gulf states. The cutoff low has the potential to do a few interesting things. The first is priming of the pre-trough environment with increased moisture and PWATs near 1.5" across the southeast. This would be near the 75th percentile for PWATs should this occur. Synoptic level forcing from the deep trough could also be sufficient to drive a line of stronger thunderstorms, however in this case the trough may not be quite deep enough for ideal support. The other result would be constructive interference of the main trough and the cut-off low. While moisture would be more limited in this scenario, synoptic forcing would be stronger with a deeper and slower trough. Thunderstorms, some potentially strong, would be possible in a "perfect" amplification pattern.

At this time, it remains a bit early to really say which is more likely given model uncertainty in cut-off low motion. What can be determined is that precipitation chances have increased for this weekend and may (fingers crossed) help drought conditions somewhat. Thunderstorm potential will also need to be monitored through the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Another SKC day expected with winds being the main factor. NW winds will switch to the NE ~14z today before switching back to NW by 21-22z before switching back to NE by 02z. Speeds remain at 7kt or less.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence on all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 81 56 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 83 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 76 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 82 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 85 58 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 82 56 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 83 57 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 83 55 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 83 55 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 83 59 82 57 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...Hernandez

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion

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