Rogers Cemetery Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

024
FXUS64 KOUN 140536
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- Areas of dense fog are possible over northwest Oklahoma this
morning.
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected
through Friday.
- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday into Saturday
    with the next cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The cold front that had moved into Oklahoma is currently undergoing
frontolysis with observations showing mainly easterly winds and
temperatures ranging from the upper-50`s (northwest) to the low-
70`s (southeast). A very moist BL, along with light winds, could
lead to the areas of dense fog over northwest Oklahoma this morning,
with visibilities improving by mid-morning as winds swing to the
south/southeast. At this hour, Alva and Woodward are already
reporting visibilities of 1/4 mile.
The H500 ridge strengthens over north Texas as a trough moves ashore
California today. As this occurs, the positively-tilted jet stream,
which is poised between these two features, lifts northward and dry
air advects into our area. This will aid in decreasing cloudiness
throughout the day and warmer temperatures. High temperatures will
be roughly 10 degrees warmer than yesterday for all but parts of
western north Texas, south-central Oklahoma, and southeastern
Oklahoma.
Thompson
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Warm and dry conditions are expected through Thursday night as we
remain under the influence of the upper ridge, with highs in the
80s. The aforementioned trough will progress slowly to the northeast
from California and will reach the northern Rockies by late Thursday.
As the surface pressure gradient contracts with the deepening of the
lee-side trough, southerly winds will increase on Thursday to about
15-20 mph with gusts to 20-30 mph (strongest winds will be felt over
northwest Oklahoma).
Thompson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The upper-level synoptic pattern begins to become more dynamic as
it typically does this time of year, and the frontal system set
to arrive this weekend will mark the first of a few for the long
term period with temperatures oscillating between warm and less
warm.
As the weakening upper trough reaches the northern plains, a jet
streak dives southeastward on the backside of the trough which will
prompt a shortwave to redevelop along the southern extent of the
trough axis over New Mexico. Breezy SSW winds are expected to become
more widespread on Friday as the LLJ shifts eastward over central
Oklahoma and as the surface low/trough axis shifts into central
Kansas with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. The increased return
flow will raise dewpoint temperatures back into the 60`s on Friday
afternoon and it will feel muggy with high temperatures in the mid-
to upper-80`s.
While details on the placement/strength/timing of the surface low
and dryline remain uncertain beyond Friday, the stage will be set
for shower and thunderstorm potential on Friday night and Saturday.
There is not yet a strong signal for severe storms. However, given
the proximity of the shortwave, surface features, and time of year,
we would not be surprised if marginally severe to severe storms
become more probable as the time draws closer. The surface low
pressure system is prog`d to track somewhere across Oklahoma on
Saturday and will be followed by a cold front. A secondary surge of
cooler air appears possible (seen at H850) behind a reinforcing cold
front. Thus Sunday should be the "coolest" day of the upcoming seven
days, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 70`s to low 80`s.
Then, shortwave ridging moves over the plains on Monday with a warmup
into the 80s and 90s. Another cold front moves into our area towards
the middle of next week.
Thompson
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1011 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Some scattered light showers continue to move across parts of
northern OK. This activity is expected to lift north of the area
over the next few hours so out of or almost out of the area
starting at 06Z. Most of the area has VFR or MVFR ceilings except
a few sites in NW OK including KWWR where ceilings are LIFR.
Improving ceilings and decreasing clouds are expected from S to N
late tonight into Tuesday. Some BR has also developed reducing
visibility this will continue overnight into early Tuesday
especially at KWWR. Winds will remain relatively light overnight
shifting towards the SE most locations Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  61  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         85  59  86  57 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  87  60  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           81  57  82  57 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     84  62  85  58 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         87  61  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014-015.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...25

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion