Rogers Cemetery Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

114
FXUS64 KMRX 142340 AAA
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
740 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 738 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue for the
  rest of the week.
- A system will bring a return of showers and possibly some
  thunderstorms to the region Saturday night through Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
A dry N-NW flow pattern continues through the week as a high
amplitude ridge will be over the Plains and MS Valley, while a
trough will be off the Atlantic coastline.
Tonight, like last night, fog is expected to develop in sheltered
valleys and near bodies of water with the clear/calm conditions.
Another day of slightly above normal temperatures can be expected
tomorrow, with highs from the mid 70s in NE TN/SW VA to around 80 in
the southern TN Valley. A backdoor cold front pushes into our NE
sections late Thursday as a high pressure ridge builds east of the
Appalachians. The main impacts of this will only be some lower
dewpoints and cooler overnight lows, mainly in NE TN and SW VA
Thursday night and Friday.
The mid/upper ridge shifts over the area on Friday, then east of the
Appalachians by Saturday. This will bring a warmer and more humid
air mass to the region starting Saturday, with high temps reaching
the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of locations outside the
mountains. Rain chances increase on Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front, along with some weak instability. The ECMWF continues to
depict a deep, negatively tilted trough and coupled jet structure,
suggesting the potential for thunderstorms and possibly
strong/severe storms if we can get adequate low level moisture and
instability. The frontal timing will be a factor in thunerstorm
severity as well, with a later afternoon timing being more favorable
for storms to tap into surface based instability. The HWO will
maintain a low probability wording for hazardous weather. Drier and
notably cooler conditions are expected by next Monday behind the
front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Some of the latest guidance is not as bullish on fog potential at
KTRI, while others continue to show some patchy fog development
tonight. I believe the day shift`s persistence forecast approach
is likely the best way forward, so I`ve left the fog in at KTRI.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with light northerly winds
through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  56  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  78  53  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  53  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              73  48  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion