Rogers Park Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

222
FXUS64 KLCH 131740
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and warm weather anticipated through mid week.
- Moisture will begin to increase Thursday.
- The next chance of rain will be Friday and Saturday as a weak
  wave moves over the northwest Gulf. Rain chances are low, as it
  depends heavily on moisture return prior to Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
A ridge at the surface stretches from eastern Canada into the
northern gulf coast this afternoon while an upper ridge is
centered over the Texas coast. These features will remain in place
through the short term keeping the local region mild and dry.
The warm and dry mid level flow around the upper ridge will keep
an inversion in place suppressing cloud cover and therefore any
shower activity with the flow around the surface ridge driving
driving lower dewpoints to the gulf coast. Highs will be slightly
above normal with a 30ish degree diurnal swing from the near
normal morning lows.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
An upper low will push into California Tuesday and into the
Rockies by Thursday. This will erode the upper ridge in the
extended. The surface high will also shift east from Wednesday
into Thursday increasing surface moisture as the fetch become more
onshore. Cloud cover will increase by Thursday with low end rain
chances returning to the forecast by Friday. A frontal boundary
will push into the area Saturday/late Sunday with scattered
showers and storms possible ahead of the boundary. Minimal cooling
is anticipated behind the boundary, however dewpoints may once
again decrease several degrees for a brief period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Light winds and VFR conditions are anticipated through the
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Through the middle of the week, winds will be below 10 knots and
mainly from the east. At night, winds will be calm. Waves will
stay below 3 feet. Rain chances will be below 10% with a slight
increase in rain chances near the end of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
While minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall into the 25 to
40% range through the next couple of afternoons, winds will remain
light. Moisture levels will increase during the second half of the
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  57  87  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  62  88  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  60  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  89  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion