Rogers, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

306
FXUS64 KFWD 042241
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler weather and rain chances arrive late Friday and continue
  through Monday with the arrival of a cold front. Total rainfall
  amounts over the four day period are expected to be around 1
  inch or less.
- Hotter and drier weather will return mid to late next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
West winds, compressional warming, and drier air boosted
temperatures into triple digits this afternoon as a weak front
sagged south to near the I-20 corridor. West to northwest winds
near and north of the front will return to the south this evening
as the boundary retreats north. A stronger southward push will
bring the front through the area tomorrow evening, along with rain
chances and cooler weather this weekend.
Temperatures were adjusted upward across all but the Red River
counties where slightly cooler air exists, otherwise the forecast
remains on track.
30
Previous Discussion:
/Today through Friday/
Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon shows almost
completely clear skies across North and Central Texas, with
surface observations indicating current temperatures in the upper
80s to mid 90s. Given the very dry airmass in place today as
shown by current dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s, temps will have
no problem rising dramatically this afternoon with highs in the
mid 90s east to low 100s west. Both DFW and Waco could reach the
100 degree mark, which would be the 7th time this summer for DFW
and 6th time for Waco if it occurs. Tonight will see increasing
cirrus spread in from the west in association with Tropical Storm
Lorena off the west coast of Baja California Sur, which will keep
low temps up in the low to mid 70s despite the very dry low level
airmass.
Tomorrow will see cloud cover continue to increase as moisture
levels deepen in the mid and upper levels, which will knock high
temperatures down a few degrees from today`s toasty levels. In
addition, lift from a passing H5 shortwave trough and an
approaching cold front from the north are anticipated to generate
scattered mid-level showers and a few thunderstorms across
Central and especially North Texas late Friday afternoon into
Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings show little CAPE with
values generally around 500 J/Kg or less, but inverted-V type
thermodynamic profiles with extremely steep low and mid level
lapse rates and a dry atmospheric column. Therefore, despite the
meager instability, a few storms could produce strong winds given
the environment. SPC has highlighted North-Central and Northeast
Texas in a marginal risk for tomorrow afternoon/night due to this
potential.
Shamburger
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 119 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025/
/Saturday through Wednesday/
Moisture will continue to gradually deepen at all levels over the
weekend into Monday as the remnant moisture from what`s left of
Tropical Storm Lorena spreads into the state. Latest guidance is
not as aggressive with rain chances for our CWA over the weekend
as a strong area of surface high pressure centered over the
Midwest keeps the bulk of Lorena`s moisture to our southwest. Even
so, at least some scattered showers and storms are anticipated,
with the highest rain chances on Sunday across our southwest
counties. Latest total QPF amounts range from a few hundredths of
an inch across our northeast up to nearly an inch in our
southwest. Regardless of precip chances, temperatures look to be
much cooler from Saturday through Monday with highs only in the
70s and 80s areawide.
Whatever rain we get this weekend will have to last for quite a
while as the rest of next week and the foreseeable future looks
hot and rain-free, thanks to a strong H5 ridge building from West
Texas into the Central Plains. Highs are forecast to reach the
upper 80s to mid 90s from Tuesday onward, although the NBM
guidance highs may be on the low side given the forecast hot and
dry airmass.
Shamburger
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
A brief shift to west winds is occurring in the Metroplex at the
moment associated with the southward drift of a weak front. Winds
will return to light south in the next hour or so as the front
retreats north. The front will get a stronger southward push
Friday evening as a shortwave trough drops southeast through the
Plains. A shift to north winds will accompany the front, with
FROPA likely occurring around this time tomorrow in the Metroplex,
and a couple hours later at KACT. Will add a line for north winds
at 05/23Z in the Metroplex TAFs. Elevated convection is also
possible behind the front associated with the shortwave, and will
add a line for VCTS at 06/03Z in the extended DFW TAF.
30
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  97  66  80  68 /   0  20  30  20  20
Waco                75  98  70  82  70 /   0  10  20  30  30
Paris               73  93  63  78  64 /   0  10  40  30  30
Denton              73  97  62  80  65 /   0  20  30  20  20
McKinney            73  96  63  80  65 /   0  20  30  30  20
Dallas              77  99  66  81  68 /   0  20  30  30  20
Terrell             73  95  66  81  67 /   0  10  40  30  30
Corsicana           76  97  70  83  70 /   0  10  30  30  20
Temple              73  97  70  84  69 /   0   5  20  30  20
Mineral Wells       73  98  63  81  65 /   0  20  20  20  20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion