Rominger, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

145
FXUS61 KRNK 292335
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
735 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture being pulled north into the area from Tropical Storm
Imelda will lead to light to moderate rain chances in the area
through Tuesday evening before surface high pressure pushing
south out of Canada works its way into the Northeast. This
should work enough dry air into the region to lead to dry and
clearing conditions on Wednesday. This dry pattern looks to
continue through at least early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
1. Light rain showers tonight.
2. Cooler and cloudy with northeast flow.
There is a piece of upper energy moving westward out of ahead of
Imelda and with a coastal front in place. This has led to
scattered areas of showers making it west into the mountains,
albeit very light. This trend is expected through this evening
with best coverage along/east of the Blue Ridge. With plenty of
clouds, any fog will be limited to higher ridges.
Previous discussion...
Upper level vorticity from Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to
merge with the remnants from the upper level cut-off trough that
became strung out over the Mid-Atlantic states over the weekend.
This merging of upper level vorticity over Virginia will lead to
the continued light to moderate rain showers that are currently
starting to push into the area from NC. These rain showers are
expected to push northwest into the Blue Ridge and NRV
overnight, and will be slightly enhanced by isentropic ascent
thanks to the surface high pressure wedge that has settled into
the Northeast. This wedge will keep northeast flow over the
region, which will effectively lead to much cooler temperatures
across the region, with highs in the mid to upper 60s west of
the Blue Ridge, and low 70s east of the Blue Ridge. Along with
cooler temperatures, light rainfall and drizzle look to continue
through at least the early afternoon hours on Tuesday before a
secondary much stronger high pressure pushes into the Northeast
out of Canada. This surface high pressure will lead to more dry
air advecting into the region leading to rainfall ending
areawide by Tuesday evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
1) Showers come to an end Tuesday night.
2) High pressure builds in and wedges over our area.
3) Temperatures fall to below normal on Thursday.
Tuesday night will see an end to any lingering rain showers across
the area, as Tropical Storm Imelda begins to turn east and head away
from the CONUS. This will be the end of the impacts from Imelda, as
drier air moves in from the northwest. A large high pressure system
over Southeastern Canada will wedge in place east of the
Appalachians and keep dry and cool conditions across the area
through the end of the period. An upper ridge also strengthens
across the Eastern CONUS,further inhibiting convection, leading to
no rainfall expected through late this week. Due to the tight
pressure gradient between the high to the north and the tropical
system to the south, northerly winds will remain elevated, around 5-
10 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph possible on Wednesday in the
Piedmont. For Thursday, the wedge shifts winds to the east, with
gusts in the mountains of 15-20 mph at times, lowering to around 10-
15 mph in the Piedmont.
Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal midweek, with highs
in the 70s area-wide. On Thursday, the high pressure wedge cools
things down, with highs mostly in the 60s to around 70 in the
Piedmont. Lows will be in the 50s Wednesday morning, with 40s for
the highest elevations. Lows the rest of the period fall into the
40s for the entire area. Friday morning will be the coldest, as the
highest elevations will likely fall into the upper 30s, with wind
chills in the low to mid 30s there.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
1) Quiet weather continues through at least Sunday night.
2) Slight chance of rain returns Monday.
3) Cool temperatures Friday return to slightly above normal this
weekend.
The strong, large high pressure system that was in Canada will now
be centered over the Northeastern US and continuing to wedge down
across the forecast area east of the Appalachian Mountains on
Friday. The high will keep convection suppressed and the upper ridge
also remains steady, which will keep drier air aloft and no chance
of rainfall through the weekend. By Sunday night into Monday, a low
pressure system will be over the Deep South, with mid-level moisture
being driven back north into the area, particularly east of the Blue
Ridge. At the same time, the wedge erodes out of the area, and the
large surface high shifts east and into the Atlantic, further aiding
in the southerly flow. This will bring a slight chance of
showers/storms back into the area, especially for the southern Blue
Ridge down into NC. Confidence in this remains low, therefore PoPs
are kept minimal, around 10%.
Temperatures remain near to below normal on Friday, with highs
mainly in the 60s. For the weekend, highs slowly rise as the wedge
erodes, into the low to mid 70s, with the Piedmont reaching the
upper 70s by next Monday. Lows will be in the 40s late week, with
40s/50s through next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Monday...
VFR conditions to trend to MVFR/IFR overnight. Patchy showers
possible especially from ROA/BCB east. Sub-VFR is expected to
linger into most of Tuesday with VFR arriving at ROA/DAN after
19z. Winds overall will be east to northeast under 10kts.
Patchy showers again Tuesday but overall coverage is limited to
have in tafs.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Rain showers may continue through late Tuesday evening as
easterly flow brings moisture back into the area from the
Atlantic Coast. Expecting VFR conditions to return after rain
ends Tuesday night, though fog potential occurs with clearing.
These VFR conditions look to continue through early next week
outside of early morning fog.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB/WP

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion