Romney, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

071
FXUS63 KIND 230023
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
748 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and thunderstorms come to an end this evening.
- Patchy fog overnight, locally dense.
- Milder with daily chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
  through much of the work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Steady rain continues across the eastern half of our CWA as of 2pm.
Rain will continue to push eastward, ending before sunset for the
majority of our area. A few showers may linger into the evening
especially across our southeast. Rainfall totals have been mostly in
the 0.25" to 0.50" range across the Indy metro, with amounts between
0.50" to 1.5" further south. A locally higher amount near 2.0" is
possible today as well. Ponding of water on roadways is possible in
heavier showers/storms. The Flash Flood threat is low today, due to
relatively fast storm motions and moderate only occasionally heavy
rainfall rates.
Not much of an air mass change is noted within guidance following
today`s system. With most of the area seeing a steady soaking rain,
a very moist boundary layer will be left in place overnight. Light
subsidence between today`s system and another over the central
Plains will allow for partial clearing. Light winds, clearing, and
high PBL moisture content will set the stage for fog formation
tonight. Fog may be locally dense, especially from Terre Haute to
Kokomo southward...which is where the bulk of today`s rain has been.
Again, fog depends on how much clearing occurs this evening / early
tonight. A short-fuse Dense Fog Advisory may be needed if clearing
is greater than anticipated.
On Tuesday, we`ll be between systems as mentioned above. The day may
end up mostly dry with broad subsidence in place. However, that is
not expected to last long as the upstream system over the Plains
approaches. Guidance shows large-scale ascent arriving as soon as
00z, increasing thereafter. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday night onward, with varying coverage depending on which model
one looks at. We introduce chance PoPs towards the end of the short
term, increasing overnight.
As for temperatures, expect lows in the 60s tonight with lower
values found further north and in areas that see clearing. A larger
rebound is anticipated Tuesday due to less rain and increased
sunshine with highs climbing to near 80.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
As we reach the middle of the week, there is a large consensus on a
quickly dropping mid to upper level trough becoming cut off from the
parent upper level flow. However, this consistency does not continue
to the surface with a wide range in possible outcomes with the track
of the associated surface low. Generally, this should lead to
overall cooler and wetter conditions for Wednesday and Thursday, but
total QPF varies greatly depending on where the low tracks. A track
across the Ohio Valley would likely lead to the precipitation axis
across Southern IN and Northern KY, whereas a track further south
could lead to more sporatic precipitation. In higher end scenarios,
2-3" of rain over southern portions of Indiana are possible.
Expected highs Wednesday and Thursday are in the low to mid 70s
depending on where greatest rain and cloud depths occur.
This weekend, weak upper-level ridging returns, sufficient enough to
remove chances for rain and push temperatures back above normal.
Friday will will be a transition day with departure of rain and
temperatures remaining near seasonal. However, this weekend forecast
highs are near 80 with dew points in the upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 748 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Impacts:
- Fog developing overnight for all TAF sites, locally dense.
Discussion:
The main concern in the forecast period will be the potential for
widespread fog development across Central Indiana tonight.
Current satellite and radar imagery show clouds and rain exiting to
the east with ample clearing pushing in from the west. Winds have
already become calm across the region and with such saturated
conditions and clearing skies, confidence is higher than normal for
conditions conducive for fog development overnight.
Lower confidence exists in the start time of fog and how low
conditions may deteriorate. Patchy fog has already been reported in
a few low lying areas as of 00z, but not expecting more widespread
fog and sub IFR conditions until after 02-04z. KLAF, KHUF, and KBMG
have the best chance at seeing dense fog and LIFR vis and cigs in
the 06z-13z timeframe. KIND usually does not see as low cigs and vis
as the other TAF sites, so have kept lowest vis at 1sm from 07-11z,
but can fine tune that based on trends overnight.
Fog may be slow to lift and dissipate during the morning hours, with
MVFR cigs and/or vis potentially holding on until 14-16z at KLAF,
KHUF, and KBMG. Fog will likely lift into an MVFR stratus deck
before breaking up and becoming VFR during the early afternoon hours.
Near calm winds persist overnight, then become southerly around 5
kts during the day.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...CM

NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion