Ropesville, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

351
FXUS64 KLUB 051133
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
633 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- A cold front passing through the forecast area will lead to a
   sharp gradient in temperatures today, with cooler highs across
   the SW TX Panhandle and warmer highs across the Rolling Plains.
- Precipitation chances arrive this afternoon and continue each
   day through the weekend into early next week.
- Warmer and drier weather will likely return by the middle of
   next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
An upper level shortwave trough was seen spiraling across the
southern Desert Southwest early this morning, allowing for H5 winds
to begin backing out of the southwest. As southwest flow prevails
aloft, we will begin to see increased moisture enter the region over
the next several hours, including mid to high level clouds.
Meanwhile a series of shortwaves are expected to track down the
southern periphery of the long wave trough over the Great Lakes
region. In turn, this will work to push a stronger cold front
southward, currently located across central Kansas as depicted by
satellite imagery and recent station obs. This front is expected
to make its way into the far southern Texas Panhandle by mid-
morning and push through the rest of the FA through the afternoon
and early evening hours. This will lead to a strong gradient in
daytime highs, with cooler temperatures in the 70s to 80s across
our northwestern counties and much warmer temperatures in the 90s
across our southeastern counties. However, confidence in daytime
highs is low at this point given the possibility of the front
slowing down and anticipated cloud cover through much of the
afternoon. As for precipitation chances this afternoon, lift
associated with the front along with subtropical moisture
transporting in, we will begin to see the return of showers and
thunderstorms by this afternoon. Additional support may also be
granted by the shortwave translating through the Southern Plains,
with flow becoming briefly northwesterly, we could see another
round of precipitation form off the higher terrain in eastern New
Mexico and track into the FA around midnight and linger through
the overnight hours into early Saturday morning. Although the
associated lift from this may be confined more to our north.
Thanks to the CAA brought from the earlier front, overnight lows
will be much cooler than previous nights, with lows ranging from
the low 50s to the low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Not much of a change to the extended to report this morning, with
models continuing to back off on the influence of TS Lorena to the
West Texas region through the weekend. This disturbance continues to
spiral across Baja Mexico as seen on satellite imagery, but is now
expected to remain off shore in the Pacific. Compared to previous
runs, due to the system remaining off shore, the period of southwest
flow aloft looks confined to Friday with a more northwesterly to
westerly flow regime through the remainder of the weekend as a ridge
amplifies across the western CONUS and the upper level trough
continues to translate through the Great Lakes. Although we do not
expect as much H3 to H7 moisture, surface winds will begin to veer
out of the southeast through the weekend, driving in efficient
moisture in from the Gulf. Dewpoints are progged in the 50s and 60s
through the weekend with PWATS around and inch to 1.5". As a series
of shortwaves riding down the eastern side of the ridge interacts
with this moisture in place we will likely see periodic showers and
thunderstorms this weekend. Sunday looks to be the best day for
seeing beneficial rainfall with higher dewpoints and a more
pronounced shortwave tracking through the northern Texas Panhandle.
These periodic showers and thunderstorms will likely continue
through early next week as disturbances continue to ripple through
the region. As for temperatures, the cooler airmass is expected to
remain in place through the weekend with lingering cloud cover,
precipitation, and the easterly component to the wind. However, we
will begin to see increased heights and thickness values by early
next week as the ridge sets up to our west, which will begin to aid
in a subtle warmup in temperatures back in the mid 80s to lower 90s
by Monday. Most models then bring the ridge more directly overhead
during the middle of the week with warmer and drier weather likely
through the end of the extended.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Biggest aviation concern today will be the timing of a northerly
wind shift and potential precipitation associated with the passage
of a southward-moving cold front. West winds will initially
prevail through much of the morning, with the cold front and
northerly wind shift likely to arrive at CDS before midday.
Thereafter, the front will likely slow, so confidence in the wind
shift at PVW and LBB is lower. At this time it appears that winds
will likely shift to northerly at PVW and LBB by mid-afternoon,
becoming more easterly this evening. Regarding precipitation,
isolated SHRA and perhaps a few TS will be possible essentially
anywhere through most of today, but confidence in timing and
location of precip is too low for specific TAF mention at this
issuance. VFR is currently expected to prevail at all terminals
today through most of tonight. Probability of MVFR CIGs begins to
increase towards the end of this TAF period, but this potential
will be handled in later issuances.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion