Rosebud, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

326
FXUS65 KABQ 020647
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1247 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Dry and warm weather prevails through Friday. Scattered showers
  and storms will develop across northwest and north-central New
  Mexico Friday night and Saturday.
- Breezy south to southwest winds Friday increase more Saturday,
  creating hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles.
- Wetter than normal weather is favored for central and northern
  New Mexico next week (moderate to high confidence).
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Today will be another blue sky day with warm temps and light winds
around central and northern New Mexico. High temps will be a few
ticks higher than Tuesday (2-5 degrees) thanks to an amplifying
ridge over the southern plains. By Friday, a trough will begin
deepening over The Great Basin. Increasing southwest winds will
induce the development of a lee-side low (~1000mb) in eastern
Colorado. Winds will overall be unimpactful, but could be just
strong enough to blow around unsecured objects in typically windy
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
The cyclonically curved jet streak will round the base of the
aformentioned Great Basin trough as it moves into Utah Friday
night and Saturday, forcing the trough to lift off to the
northeast. Jet forcing and orographic lift will help a few showers
develop across northwestern and north-central NM. Wetting rain
will generally be confined to the high terrain, but there could be
a sprinkles in northern valleys as well overnight. The trough
will rapidly lift into the northern plains on Saturday. Showers
and even a few storms may develop along a fast-moving Pacific
front, but the front will rapidly weaken as it moves eastward as
it becomes detached from the upper-level forcing.
Saturday will be the windiest day in a while with gusts of 30 to 50
mph around the region. 700mb winds of 30-40kts will be above the
90th percentile for early October and winds of this magnitude (and
potentially stronger) could intermittently be brought down to the
sfc with showers along the aformentioned Pacific front. Sunday will
be the nicer day this weekend with no precipitation, less wind, and
slightly cooler temperatures. The trough exiting into the Plains may
send a backdoor front into eastern NM on Monday, although it should
struggle to progress any further than the central mountain chain
given that it will be fighting increasing southwest flow. Moisture
will gradually be brought in from the south early next week as
another trough deepens over California. The aformentioned frontal
boundary will focus precipitation in north-central and northeastern
NM and another surge mid-week could further enhance precipitation
rates.
Ensemble guidance suggests PWATs will rise above the 90th percentile
areawide Tuesday through Thursday when precipitation will be most
widespread. Increasing instability could help to increase rainfall
rates along a thin corridor of moisture, but a shield of mid-level
clouds will attempt to counteract this and keep storms mostly at
bay. At least slightly above average moisture is expected to hang
around through the end of the workweek, keeping rain chances
around.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions with light winds and mostly clear skies will continue
to prevail through the TAF period around central and northern New
Mexico.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Dry conditions with light winds prevail today, then south to
southwest winds trend stronger Friday into Saturday. This will
create elevated to even near-critical fire weather conditions in
northeastern NM, but recent moisture will prevent fuels from being
susceptible to any rapid fire spread. Showers and a few storms will
focus over northwest and north-central NM on Saturday, with dry
weather returning Sunday in the wake of a weak Pacific front. Rain
chances trend higher again early to mid-next week as subtropical
moisture streams back into New Mexico from the south. There is a
moderate chance of widespread wetting rainfall mid to late next
week, with the highest chance in the northern mountains. A light
southerly breeze will prevail in most areas during this time period
as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  82  53  83  55 /   0   0   0  30
Dulce...........................  79  39  78  44 /   0   0   0  40
Cuba............................  77  48  77  50 /   0   0   5  10
Gallup..........................  80  46  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  77  48  77  49 /   0   0   5   0
Grants..........................  80  46  80  49 /   0   0   5   0
Quemado.........................  80  49  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  78  54  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  77  48  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  84  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  88  54  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  73  41  72  43 /   0   0   5  30
Los Alamos......................  75  52  74  52 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  77  49  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  75  48  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  67  41  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  72  33  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  78  44  77  46 /   0   0   0   5
Mora............................  75  44  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  82  48  81  51 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  77  52  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  80  49  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  85  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  86  54  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  85  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  86  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  85  54  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  85  52  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  86  55  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  85  53  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  81  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  85  56  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  88  57  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  77  52  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  79  54  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  80  47  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  81  44  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  77  49  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  79  50  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  79  49  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  82  54  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  75  51  73  49 /   5   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  77  49  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  79  44  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  81  45  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  77  48  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  85  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  80  52  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  88  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  84  54  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  87  56  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  90  58  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  90  58  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  87  56  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  90  58  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  85  54  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  82  52  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion