192 FXUS63 KSGF 092340 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 640 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly northwest of I-44 this afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through at least this weekend. Some record highs may be approached.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Still dealing with MCS remnants over our western CWA which has brought some scattered mainly light showers to that area along with keeping temperatures on the cooler side. Water vapor imagery shows a digging low over the west coast and a ridge axis over the high plains and northwest flow across the plains and into our CWA. Shortwave energy in this northwest flow has aided in the ongoing precipitation coverage. The showers/storms were beginning to dissipate somewhat and we are expecting this trend to continue, but may linger with 30% or less coverage through the afternoon. For tonight, we should end the precipitation chances with partly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the mid 50s in the east to the low 60s in the west.

The upper ridge axis will build a bit further east into the plains and Mississippi valley. We should see temperatures back in the upper 80s to low 90s.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

As the upper ridge builds into the area Thursday through Sunday, generally hot and dry conditions will persist with daily highs in the low to upper 90s and lows in the low to upper 60s. Heat index values should remain below 100 for most areas through the period with no heat headlines expected at this time.

That upper trough will gradually begin to lift northeast into the central and northern plains and upper Mississippi valley early next week with the best rain chances staying north of the area.

Our 8 to 14 day outlook continues the trend of above normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation. Ensembles in overall agreement with a general 5 to 8 degree above normal temperature during this period which goes through the 22nd of September. Normal highs for this time of year range from 77 to 82 across the CWA and lows from 55 to 59.

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Current radar imagery shows a few bands of unexpected showers and thunderstorms just east of the Missouri-Kansas border. While these have high confidence in not directly impacting JLN (75-90%), lightning has been reported in the vicinity of the airport over the past few hours. These storms should gradually diminish after 02Z.

Otherwise, middle level clouds should generally diminish through the period with winds maintaining dominance out of the south at 5-10 kts. Winds should shift to southwesterly after 15Z, with VFR conditions expected throughout the whole period.

.CLIMATE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Values listed below are for sites that are within 5 degrees of a record.

Record High Temperatures:

September 10: KSGF: 96/1984

September 11: KSGF: 96/2000 KUNO: 96/1953

September 12: KSGF: 97/1939 KJLN: 97/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

September 13: KSGF: 99/2011 KVIH: 96/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

September 14: KUNO: 99/1954

September 15: KSGF: 98/1893 KJLN: 98/1956 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 98/1954

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None.

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Price CLIMATE...Lindenberg/Burchfield

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion