Rosella, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

383
FXUS64 KJAN 191421 AAB
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
921 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Rest of Today...A couple of disturbances aloft moving east across
the Mid-South region, will aid in sparking a few more showers and
storms across mainly northern portions of the forecast area
today. Elsewhere, only isolated convection will again be possible.
A strong storm or two capable of producing some gusty winds and
potentially some hail can`t be ruled out as some pretty steep mid-
level lapse rates exist, 6-7C/km, with vertical totals around 31.
However, wind shear remains unfavorable and with dew points
mixing into the lower 60s, instability levels aren`t exactly
impressive. As a result, confidence in any severe threat currently
remains pretty low. That said, the better potential for an
isolated strong storm currently looks to reside across the
northwest Delta region late this afternoon. Outside of that, look
for another hot afternoon as highs again top out in the mid 90s.
The ongoing forecast remains in good shape.  Other than tweaking
some hourly elements of it based on current trends, no major changes
will be made on this morning`s update. /19/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A shortwave disturbance moving into our region from the west today
will provide some lift to help showers and thunderstorms develop -
even if isolated for most of our area. Moisture values are
sufficient enough (PW around 1.5 inches) to support pop up
convection, so do not see any reason why across-the-board slight
chance POPs aren`t warranted. At least some degree of organization
is possible in proximity to the shortwave axis, so POPs are a
little higher in the ArkLaMiss Delta region this afternoon and
early evening.
Tomorrow the forecast area may be more suppressed below upper-
level shortwave ridging, but moisture values should still support
at least a few isolated showers or storms with daytime heating.
Ensured that POPs were included for the afternoon hours Saturday.
The current pattern will break down over the next few days,
resulting in a more progressive zonal flow pattern over the CONUS
through the next work week. A few low pressure systems moving
through the region and deeper moisture pooled in the Deep South
may actually yield some heavy rainfall potential before the week
is over. /NF/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period.
Isolated SHRA or TSRA are possible after 18Z, but confidence in
impacts from thunder was too low to mention in TAFs at this time.
/CR/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  69  95  70 /  20  20  20   0
Meridian      95  68  95  68 /  20  20  20   0
Vicksburg     94  69  95  70 /  20  20  20   0
Hattiesburg   95  69  97  69 /  20  20  20   0
Natchez       94  68  94  70 /  20  20  20   0
Greenville    93  68  95  69 /  20  20  20   0
Greenwood     95  67  95  69 /  20  20  20   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
19/

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion