Roxana, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

362
FXUS64 KLCH 141801
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
101 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An upper level ridge will remain over the region through the
  first half of the coming week.
- Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected during the period.
- Lower than normal daytime humidity will keep heat indices capped
  in the upper 90s to around 100 each day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
The overall forecast pattern has added more isolated chances of
rainfall to the forecast which is a small, but relatively notable
change to the NIL rainfall that been in the forecast the last few
days. Modest surface ridging extends across the Southern Plains
while showing signs of weakening as expected this afternoon. This
weakness has allowed more influence of the marine layer. However,
per last night`s 14th/00Z upper air sounding a very notable mid-
level inversion still remains from the upper level subsidence. This
profile will help cap any isolated shower / storms from developing
much, so only light PoPs have been added to the forecast.
Additionally, this inversion may lead to some additional cloud cover
along with high clouds filter in from the north. We`ll still see low
90`s fairly common across the forecast area with a few backyards
potentially touching mid 90`s briefly.
Starting the workweek off, the vast majority will remain dry as
temperatures climb toward the low - mid 90`s with light variable
winds in the afternoon. Similar conditions can be expected through
the first half of Tuesday, while the afternoon and evening carries
more intrusion of low level moisture from the Gulf. Given projected
stable tropospheric model soundings, I do find it difficult to get
organized precipitation with appreciable rainfall amounts, but will
caution the uncertainty in a potential increase in chances toward
the Tues late afternoon in subsequent updates.
Kowalski / 30
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Surface ridging remains very weak and slack across the forecast area
moving into Wednesday while sfc-925mb flow begins to shift onshore
and intrude further inland. PoPs increase to isolated chances while
temperatures trend toward the lower 90`s. Continuing to have
southerly surface advection, these 10-20% chances become a little
more widespread Thursday as a shortwave deepens across the Midwest.
This enhances the upper level divergence aloft creating weak
troughing pattern moving into the latter half of the work week. Here
isolated to scattered chances of rainfall become more consistent and
a sign the current dry pattern is showing it`s shelf life. That
said, given some notable changes from yesterday`s package, will
caution some uncertainty regarding the potential moderation of rain
chances late in the forecast period as shortwave organizes further
east.
Kowalski / 30
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Conditions will trend VFR through the next 6 hourly TAF period.
Light and variable winds will carry into the early evening hours
with VFR condition remaining through midnight. Thereafter, patches
of ground BR are possible given some MVFR limits to VIS toward
dawn of 15th/AM.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Winds will be generally light and east to southeast during the
period. A modest increase in winds can be expected Monday and
Tuesday as a wave passes well south of the region.
Dry air and high pressure will keep precipitation chances to a
minimum.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Hot and dry conditions with light, variable winds to be expected
today into the start of the work week. Broadening high pressure
will remain over or near the region into the mid week, however,
today a brief weakening of the ridge is expected to take place
with a 10 to 20 percent chance of an afternoon thunderstorm as a
result.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  93  69  94 /   0  10   0  10
LCH  73  91  73  92 /   0  10   0  10
LFT  71  91  71  92 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  73  91  71  92 /   0  10   0  10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion