Roxobel, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

876
FXUS61 KAKQ 051115
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
715 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A second, stronger cold front crosses the area late Saturday
into Sunday, with additional scattered showers and storms
possible. Cool high pressure builds north of the area Sunday
into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Summer-like conditions continue with mostly sunny skies and
  highs around 90.
Early morning sfc analysis indicates high pressure just off the
coast and the cold front that was approaching the area
weakening/washing out. Aloft, a wide trough extends from Montana
down to the Mid-Atlantic with low pressure N of the Great Lakes;
this places the local area under SW flow. Latest obs show temps
generally in the mid to upper 60s, but a few sites in the SE are
still in the low 70s. Patchy fog is present and will persist until
just after sunrise, particularly for locations that saw rain
yesterday.
The southerly flow both at the sfc and aloft will allow for another
warm day with highs reaching the low 90s for many. Also a bit on the
humid side, especially compared to recently, as dewpoints climb
toward 70. Skies should be mostly sunny. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 60s/around 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Warmer temperatures are expected Saturday, with highs in the
  lower 90s. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a much stronger cold
  front.
- Autumnal weather returns Sunday with highs in the mid 70s and
  drier air moving back in.
The closed off low that is N of the Great Lakes this morning will
progress NE Saturday, dragging a cold front stronger than the one
that attempted to pass through yesterday along with it. Should have
a decent, albeit warm, day before the front kicks off
showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Saturday will be the warmest
day of the week with highs in the low 90s W of the bay and upper 80s
on the Eastern Shore. While it will still be a tad humid, heat
indices should max out in the mid 90s. Will start off the day partly
cloudy, then cloud cover increases from the NW ahead of the front.
Expecting showers/storms to initiate mid to late afternoon in the
NW, then progressing SE into the overnight hours. The SPC does a
Marginal Risk of severe weather for much of the area, just excluding
Hampton Roads and NE NC. This system does provide a good amount of
lift and the 00z HREF has CAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range
and Eff Shear of 25-30kt. Storms will be racing against the clock,
though, given the quickly waning instability after sunset and sunset
coming a lot earlier than it did a month ago. Considering this,
highest confidence in severe potential is in the NW counties.
Primary threat would be damaging wind gusts.
Strong high pressure out of Canada will swoop in behind the front
and will bring back the crisp fall air. Highs will be in the mid 70s
and dewpoints crash into the low-mid 50s. The front may get hung up
just offshore and there is the potential for low pressure to form
along it. This means that there is a chance for lingering showers
along the coast, as well as mostly cloud skies for most of the area.
Lows Sun night will be in the low-mid 50s inland and on the Eastern
Shore and the low 60s in the SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler weather sticks around early next week.
High pressure continues to build into the area Monday/Tuesday
with a coastal trough shifting a bit farther offshore. Dry,
fall-like days look to be back in place for early next week,
with high temperatures only in the 70s and lows in the low 60s
along the coast, to 50s inland with a few upper 40s possible
well inland each morning from Tue-Wed. Rain chances remain quite
low through the period, though they may increase across far SE
portions of the area toward the end of the period Wednesday into
Thursday, as moisture rides north along the stalled coastal
trough.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Friday...
VFR conditions prevail for the 06z TAF period. Precip has come
to an end and skies are mostly clearing out with the exception
of some lingering cloud cover over Hampton Roads. There is the
potential for patchy fog through sunrise, but not expecting
significant impacts to the terminals at this time. Skies should
remain mostly clear through the remainder of the period.
Southerly winds increase during the late afternoon/evening.
Gusts of ~20kt anticipated at the coastal terminals, ~15kt at
RIC. Winds should diminish again after sunset.
Outlook: Another chance of late day and evening isolated to
scattered afternoon/evening storms for all terminals on
Saturday, with gusty winds and short-lived VIS/CIG restrictions
possible in heavier showers and storm. VFR conditions return
Sunday through the middle of next week.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Additional Small craft conditions have been issued across the
  Bay late today into tonight, with post- frontal SCAs likely
  for most of the marine area Sunday through the early to middle
  portion of next week.
- Moderate Rip Risk for the northern beaches today.
Sub-SCA conditions with S winds 10-15 kt and seas ~4 ft N and
2-3 ft S are expected for most of the rest of today, but there
is another S/SE surge likely by late aftn through the evening,
probably not quite as strong as what occurred on Thursday. Local
wind probs have 50-75% chc for 18kt+ sustained winds in the Bay
as we approach the early evening and into tonight. Will allow
the current headline to expire, and then issue another SCA for
later today/tonight across the Bay. For the coastal waters,
confidence at seeing 5 ft seas is lower so will likely hold off
this cycle after the SCAs on the ocean end at 6 AM.
A much stronger front is forecast to pass through early Sunday,
probably resulting in a short duration surge, followed by a bit
of a lull, with stronger winds then expected late Sunday
night/early Monday as the deeper cold air advection moves
through. Continued to go with the higher side of guidance for
the northerly winds behind the front, since guidance tends to be
too low when cooler, drier air moves in over the warm waters
this time of year. SCAs will likely be needed for much of the
area at some point Sunday into Monday. The gradient may weaken
enough for sub-SCA conditions later Monday as high pressure
builds in from the NW. Looking ahead in the extended NE winds
are expected to prevail as strong high pressure centers over New
England, allowing for winds and seas to increase Tue-Wed.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...
Have cancelled all Coastal Flood Advisories, with high tide now
passed. Otherwise, tidal departures in the upper Bay will
continue at around 1-1.5 feet above normal through today, but
with the next cycle later today being the lower of the daily
high tides, additional flooding is not anticipated. However, may
once again see portions of the MD eastern shore along the Bay
approach or reach into minor flood early Saturday morning. Will
allow this current cycle to finish before issuing any additional
statements or advisories.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ630>632-634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC/MAM
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...HET/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion