Royal Oaks, California Weather Forecast Discussion

306
FXUS66 KMTR 062217
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
317 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Cooler weather continues into next week.
- Chance for light rain/rain showers early next week across the
   North Bay and Bay Area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 100 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
(This evening through Sunday)
Not much change in the short term, generally temperatures will
remain below seasonal averages into tomorrow by about 5-10 degrees
F. Low clouds are anticipated to return overnight and spread inland
into the valleys into early Sunday morning. Low clouds will give way
to mostly sunny conditions by mid-to-late morning on Sunday with
temperatures warming into the low-to-mid 80s across the interior,
upper 70s to lower 80s just inland away from the coast, and 60s to
lower 70s near the coastline. However, it is worth noting the Santa
Cruz area will be warmer with highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees F.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 100 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
(Sunday night through next Friday)
A 500 mb trough will approach the coast by Sunday night and move
inland into Tuesday. This will bring unsettled conditions to the
region through the first half of the upcoming week with the greatest
probability for wetting rains (40-60%) being across the North Bay.
Pre-frontal rain will develop Monday as the front approaches with
isolated to scattered rain showers expected to linger into
Wednesday. There is a potential for thunderstorms Monday night into
Wednesday in wake of the frontal passage as the airmass aloft
becomes more unstable, however confidence remains low. The
probability of precipitation will be greatest over the North Bay and
into the Bay Area through this timeframe, with generally less than a
25% chance across the Central Coast. We will continue to monitor
this pattern change as we move closer to the event and gain access
to higher resolution models and CAMs (convetion-allowing models).
From previous forecaster: "850 temps and 500 mb height will
gradually rebound late week, likely bringing temperatures back to
normal by the following weekend, but there is an alternate scenario
where a reinforcing trough moves in and brings another round of
disturbed weather."
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 316 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Currently VFR at all terminals with some thin stratus off the coast.
Low to moderate confidence on sub-VFR ceilings returning to all
terminals tonight with greatest chances generally at bayshore and
coastal terminals. The caveat is that the air is drier the farther
south you go, so there is relatively lower confidence for the
Monterey Bay terminals. Winds will be light and variable overnight.
Widespread VFR by tomorrow afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate
confidence in an MVFR ceiling developing at the terminal tonight
with VFR by tomorrow afternoon. Westerly winds will prevail through
the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and
VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence in IFR
ceilings returning to both terminals tonight; however, dry air may
entrain into the marine layer and/or an Otter Eddy may form in the
Monterey Bay and only affect the northern half of it i.e. not MRY
and SNS.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Expect light to moderate northwest winds through the weekend and
into the next work week with moderate seas prevailing through
Wednesday. Locally strong gusts can be expected with the afternoon
sea breeze. Winds look to stay mostly the same through much of
the forecast period, but seas and swell look to increase slightly
into the mid work week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Murdock
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion