Rudolph, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

769
FXUS64 KBRO 092324 AAA
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
624 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Daily low to medium (30-50%) rain chances will continue across
most of Deep South Texas through the end of the week and into the
weekend. The 12Z upper air sounding measure precipitable water
values around 2.14 inches, which is right at the 90th percentile
for this date according to SPCs sounding climatology page. In
combination with diurnal instability and a lingering stationary
boundary, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop from the mid morning hours to early evening
hours each day across the region. Over the Gulf waters and near
the Lower Texas beaches, isolated activity is expected into the
evening and overnight hours. In general, the highest precipitation
chances each day will reside closer to the immediate coast, which
coincides with the highest precipitable water values. Given the
presence of high moisture content, pockets of brief heavy rainfall
cannot be ruled out with any showers or thunderstorms that
develop. This may result in nuisance flooding issues, mainly over
low-lying or flood-prone areas depending on where the activity
sets up. Rain chances look to decrease over the weekend as
subsidence increases aloft. Any activity should be limited to
mostly sea breeze activity during the early afternoon to early
evening hours.
Expect seasonable temperatures to continue through the next week
or so with highs in the low to mid 90s region wide. In combination
with the humidity, heat index values are expected to range from
100 to 105 degrees. Fortunately, increased cloud cover associated
with any showers or thunderstorms may help keep temperatures a few
degrees cooler than forecast. A minor (level 1 of 4) heat risk
will continue through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Moderate northeasterly winds this evening are expected to diminish
to light and variable or calm overnight, slowly picking back up to
moderate and out of the east throughout tomorrow afternoon.
Isolated showers are possible overnight at KBRO and KHRL, but
should be very brief in duration, with chances continuing into the
morning hours. PROB30`s resume at all aerodromes by the afternoon
hours for the medium (30-60%) chance of quick-hitting showers and
thunderstorms, potentially reducing visibility and/or ceilings
down to MVFR briefly.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail with light to
moderate easterly winds and low to moderate seas. Medium to high
rain chances continue through the end of the week over the Gulf
waters and Laguna Madre. Locally enhanced winds and seas are
likely within any showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  92  78  92 /  50  50  40  60
HARLINGEN               74  92  74  93 /  30  50  30  60
MCALLEN                 77  95  77  95 /  30  50  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  96  74  95 /  10  50  20  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  87  81  88 /  60  60  40  60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  90  77  90 /  50  50  40  60
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...65-Irish

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion