Ruffin, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

250
FXUS61 KRNK 221758
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
158 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms possible west of the Blue Ridge
this afternoon. Low pressure over the northern plains and upper
Midwest will track the Great Lakes and lower Missouri Valley by
Tuesday. This system edges closer through the rest of the week
increasing our chances for beneficial rainfall.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
1) Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon and
Tuesday mainly for the mountains.
Some convection has triggered in the western CWA recently and so
far has remained showers though some further destabilization
this afternoon could allow for some garden variety
thunderstorms. Not anticipating much intensity with any given a
tall/skinny CAPE thermal profile and weak deep layer bulk shear.
Much of the upper trough dynamics should remain west of the
region today, though a shortwave looks to swing into the area
for Tuesday along with an eastward expanse of the deep layer
moisture field so am expecting a bit greater shower/storm
coverage by the afternoon. Still not thinking much in the way of
organized convection with a still weakly sheared environment
expected.
Max temps Tuesday could have more of a gradient with a bit
warmer values in the Piedmont generally mid to upper 80s and
cooler in parts of the mountains given cloud cover/precip,
generally in the mid 70s to low 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
1) Increasing and beneficial rain chances into Thursday.
Increased in moisture ahead of an upper low over the Upper Great
Lakes will start heading east into the central Appalachians and mid-
Atlantic this period with best chances arriving with a strong
disturbance aloft later Wed into Thursday. Until then, main chance
of showers will be in the mountains. Consensus forecast for this
period brings us rainfall of close to an inch in the Piedmont to as
much as 2 inches in the mountains. Given thunderstorms are possible,
higher localized amounts will be possible. Even though we are in a
drought, very heavy rain with any thunderstorms could lead to
localized flooding mainly Thursday and in the mountains.
Cloud cover will also increase through the period and humidity. This
will keep lows at night elevated above normal but highs will be at
or below normal in the mountains and above normal in the Piedmont
given slower movement of system.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
1) Expect showery weather into the start of the weekend with higher
probability on Friday as the front and upper trough track across.
2) Drier over the weekend into Monday.
Upper pattern features closed low/trough shifting east with time.
Model consensus shows one low closing off over Georgia while
northern stream trough heads east into New England by Sat night. At
the same time a tropical system will likely be curving northwest to
north off the east coast late in the weekend. Position of upper
trough is expected to keep this system east of our area. Synoptic
models are trending drier over the weekend but will maintain some
shower chances due to upper low nearby. Temperatures should be close
to just below normal for the weekend into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM AM EDT Monday...
Mainly some high end MVFR to low end VFR cigs with some cu for
the mountain sites this afternoon that could have some gradual
lifting. Greater precip chances for BLF and LWB so have VCSH but
cannot rule out an isolated TSRA that could reduce VSBYs. Winds
mostly south under 7 kts then overnight calm to light south.
Cigs could lower to near MVFR level for some of the mountain
sites for Tuesday morning and possible 1/4SM FG OVC001 for LWB.
The MVFR cigs may linger on into part of the day for BLF and
LWB. Should again have some afternoon SHRA/TSRA potential
Tuesday that covers a bit farther eastward than today.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
Mainly VFR this week though could see some sub-VFR cigs/vsbys
with showers in the afternoon and fog at night mainly in the
mountains. Shower/storm chances increase by Thursday with sub-
VFR more likely areawide.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VFJ/WP
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...AS/WP
LONG TERM...AS/WP
AVIATION...AB/VFJ

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion