Rutherfordton, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

158
FXUS62 KGSP 211753
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
153 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly in the
mountains each day through Tuesday. Temperatures will remain at or
slightly above normal for this time of year. Unsettled weather and
cooler temperatures develop in the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 103 PM EDT Sunday: An increase in boundary layer moisture
is evident in the cu field that developed quickly across the area
late this morning. Some enhancement to the cu was noted over the
ridgetops of the central and srn mountains, so it would appear
that we are on our way to seeing some shower activity over those
areas. Precip probs were kept mostly unchanged, with chances mostly
over the aforementioned areas. Buoyancy is quite a bit less than
yesterday, especially east of the mtns. A stray shower won`t be
ruled out east of the Blue Ridge, but the chance is too low to
mention. No changes were made to the temps.
A gradual evolution of weather features is expected over the next
24 hours while the overall pattern of a broad ridge off the east
coast and a mean upper trof moves from the Plains to the Midwest/TN
Valley. This should push the weak sfc high ridging down from the
New England coast further offshore tonight. Convection should die
off after sunset, then we can expect the usual mtn valley fog and
low stratus. Temps should be slightly above normal. The approach of
the trof from the west should bring a more southwesterly flow aloft,
but the Gulf moisture still remains to our west as most of our low
level flow has origins over the Atlantic. The main forcing coming
through the trof is expected to lift up the OH Valley thru Monday,
leaving the area outside the mtns without much to support convection
or precip. The mtns should have another shot of scattered showers
and storms on Monday afternoon thanks to differential heating. The
better chances for severe storms, such as they are, should be to
our northwest. Temps look similar to today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 123 PM EDT Sunday: Sandwiched between a baggy upper trough
to the west and a Bermuda high to the east will set the stage for
a weak frontal zone to develop. Model guidance keep the front just
west of the Appalachians to start the forecast period with the
lack of any support to help push the front further east. Diurnal
convection is still in play for the mountains, but without an
obvious lifting mechanism, not expecting anything to really break
containment east of the mountains and foothills on Tuesday. Weak
cyclogenesis over the central CONUS will take place Tuesday into
Wednesday as a digging trough over the Rockies helps to carve out a
closed upper low. Slow propagation of the low will keep the frontal
zone west of the area on Wednesday, but better moisture transport
should help uptick convective coverage across the mountains. With
the better forcing still lagging west of the CWFA, not expecting
much in the way of coverage outside of the mountains, with the
exception of outflow driven convection on Wednesday. This would
likely take place in locations closer in vicinity to the Blue Ridge
Escarpment. Afternoon highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be 4-8
degrees above normal as very warm thicknesses remain in place and
WAA filtering into the region, ahead of the closed low. Overnight
lows will hover around or slightly above normal as dewpoints remain
elevated with better moisture return.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday: Fairly good agreement that a cutoff low
will develop near the Mid-MS Valley Thursday into Friday and help
to advance the aforementioned frontal zone. A nice conveyor belt of
moisture looks to ride along and ahead of the front, with better
forcing reaching the area. In this case, a slug of better QPF
response will shift across the CWFA starting Thursday. The slow
forward speed of the frontal boundary will help to keep deeper
moisture and better forcing in place Thursday night and Friday
as well. Instances of heavy rainfall leading to localized hydro
concerns can`t be completely ruled out, but the antecedent dry
conditions will help limit this threat. Better deep layer shear is
indicated when the main frontal zone enters the area on Friday. CAPE
values are low, but organized convection leading to a low-end severe
threat isn`t out of the realm of possibility. Model guidance still
have the front making a full fropa later Friday into early Saturday
as some instances of wraparound moisture may lead to a few showers
along the the NC/TN border for Saturday. Otherwise, conditions
look to improve by the end of the forecast period. Temperatures
will drop to near-normal values by Thursday and remain this way or
even slightly below-normal through much of the period with cooler
thicknesses in place and extensive cloud cover and precipitation
for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Might still have brief MVFR ceiling in a
few places over the next hour, but cloud bases should be above
030 in short order, so VFR will prevail through the evening. Not
nearly as much shower activity this afternoon has the last few
days, so any precip mention was limited to a VCSH at KAVL. The
only problem of sorts this afternoon will be the light easterly
cross-wind at KCLT. Obs have been south of east, so that direction
was chosen even though guidance would have the direction mostly
north of east. Once we get to sunset, that direction should return
to ENE. Otherwise, expect another round of fog/low stratus in the
mtn valleys, so persistence pays for KAVL. The fog should burn
off around 14Z Monday. Thereafter, VFR. Wind is expected to come
around more SE to S by midday as high pressure weakens and we get
more influence from a trof to our west.
Outlook: Dry weather returns to start the week. Rain chances may
return Tuesday thru midweek. Fog and stratus possible each morning
in the mountain valleys.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...PM

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion