Rye, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

263
FXUS65 KPUB 230013
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
613 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Incoming system will bring cool temperatures and widespread
showers and storms.
- Accumulating snow expected for the mountains peaks, near or above
11 thousand feet, with several inches expected by Tuesday evening.
- Cooler pattern in store for Tuesday and Wednesday, with meaningful
rain chances for much of the area, and more snow in the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Currently...
The beginnings of showers have formed over the eastern mountains,
with clouds building in across the region. Currently, most
supportive air for continued convective development and
intensification remains confined to the far eastern plains, where
SPC mesoanalysis shows a narrow window of 1000+ J/kg of CAPE, and 30-
40 knots or bulk shear.
Rest of Today and Tonight...
Cold front will move in from the north this evening, spreading
showers and some thunderstorms across portions of the eastern plains
through late tonight. Temperatures will cool down quickly, with
overnight lows in the 40s-50s for the plains and 30s for the
valleys. Meanwhile, some snowfall is expected to pick up over the
peaks of the Central Mountains, northern Sangres, and the top of
Pikes Peak. The accumulating snow should generally stay confined
above 11-thousand feet. Out east, mainly just looking at rain
showers with some embedded thunder, mostly along and north of the
Highway 50 corridor, and potentially our southeast mountains and
adjacent areas.
Tuesday...
Breezy north winds will continue to surge across the area on
Tuesday, bringing more cool temperatures and continued precipitation
chances. High temperatures will noticeably sink below seasonal
levels, with 50s-60s over most of the CWA, with some portions of the
southeast plains creeping into the low-70s. Meanwhile, persistent
cloud cover and limited instability will keep mainly steady rain
showers over the lower elevations, though a little bit of embedded
thunder will be possible. Coverage will be best closest to the
mountains, with more scattered coverage further east. Meanwhile, the
high mountain peaks will continue to see snowfall. Generally these
areas will see 2-4 inches, though a few localized 6-inch
accumulations will be possible as well. Snow levels still look to
remain near or above 11 kft throughout the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
We begin to clear out slowly from west to east throughout the
evening and overnight hours of Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
speed of this clearing will determine the extent of cooling for
Tuesday night, especially over our mountain valleys. If we clear
quickly, frost, and possibly even sub-freezing temperatures, will be
possible for the San Luis Valley Tuesday night. Models pull the
positively tilted trough axis across our forecast area by the early
morning hours of Wednesday, leaving us in northerly flow aloft for
the remainder of the day. Daytime highs look to remain around 8 to
10 degrees cooler than normal for Wednesday, though with ridging
beginning to build in from the west and skies beginning to clear, we
will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. Temperatures are likely
to top out in the mid to upper 60s over El Paso County and our
mountain adjacent plains, with low to mid 70s for the rest of the
plains. Showers and thunderstorms will be sparse, but still possible
over and near our mountains through the afternoon hours. We`ll see
another of round frost possibilities over the San Luis Valley
Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well.
Thursday Onwards..
Near normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions look to return
for Thursday and Friday as ridging moves back over the region.
Models bring a low onshore over California through this period,
though they struggle to agree on its path from Thursday onwards.
There also seems to be some measure of disagreement on the
possibility that we could see some moisture under the ridge and ahead
of the low, at least for our mountains, by this weekend, as said low
moves inland eventually. Ensemble guidance does suggest that pwats
may be above seasonal normals by this weekend, at least for our
mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Mainly VFR conditions with MVFR cigs and vis possible at COS and
PUB through tomorrow morning. Cold front continues to push south
across northeastern Colorado and looks to be at COS between
01Z-02Z and through PUB between 02Z-03Z, with breezy northerly
winds of 15-30kts in its wake. Latest higher res data indicates
better coverage of showers and thunderstorms behind the front
and went with tempo coverage of storms at the terminals between
02Z-06Z. Westerly flow aloft and northerly surface winds should
limit low cloud/br development at the terminals through the
overnight hours, with a secondary front bringing another surge
of gusty northerly winds between 16Z-18Z Tuesday. Best chances
of storms tomorrow remains north of the area, but did include
prob30 for -shra aft 20Z.
Mainly VFR conditions expected at ALS over the next 24 hours,
with a low probability for IFR cigs/vis with fog development
early tomorrow morning. Fog potential remains too low to include
in taf at this time. Otherwise, there remains low chances of
-tsra at the terminal through the evening hours, with another
 low chance of -shra tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MW

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion