Sacramento, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

218
FXUS64 KEPZ 051148
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
548 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- The risk of heavy rainfall through Saturday is very much
  diminished as the circulation of Hurricane Lorena looks to stay
  off shore, and its remnant circulation largely staying south of
  our area.
- Persistent cloud cover and light rain showers will be the main
  affect from Lorena, with somewhat steadier rainfall and slightly
  higher rain totals in the New Mexico Bootheel.
- There`s now a better chance for more typical, but slow-moving
  thunderstorms over the Gila and Sacramento Mountains on Saturday
  as more instability develops. This will be the best window for
  localized flooding. Showers and thunderstorms will drift
  towards the lowlands Saturday night.
- Cooler temperatures are still expected, especially Friday with
  the lingering showers and cloud cover.
- Drier conditions look to prevail Monday into the middle part of
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
The main story continues to be Tropical Storm Lorena, which is
barely holding on to tropical storm status as shear and relatively
cool sea surface temperatures have taken their toll on the
cyclone. Much of its mid and upper-level moisture has been
stripped away from the low-level circulation, which is well off
the Baja Peninsula Coast. Lorena`s moisture will continue to drive
our weather through Sunday, at least in part. In the short term,
a large shield of precip has developed ahead of it extending
through Central New Mexico into Northern Mexico associated with
the entrance region of an H250 jet and weak convergence at H850.
Guidance shows this band of precip lasting through much of the
night into the morning, ending after a weak s/w lifts out into the
Plains.
Much of Friday will be quiet as Lorena`s remnants remain
to our southwest and heights remain fairly neutral. With high
moisture content though and perhaps some subtle forcing, isolated
to maybe scattered showers and storms will redevelop in the
afternoon with best coverage/chances in the mountains. Although a
few higher totals cannot be ruled out, more and more it looks like
most locations will only see a trace to up to 0.10" or so through
Friday night.
Saturday looks to have the highest risk for heavy rainfall and
flash flooding. Lorena`s moisture is expected to remain in place
though much of of the trough left behind from it will have filled
in to our south. Nevertheless, a s/w trough is expected to round
the top of the UL ridge centered over the Rockies, pushing
southeast Saturday afternoon into the Front Range during the late
evening hours. Breaks in the clouds and enhanced lift from the
trough will foster scattered shower and thunderstorm development.
PWAT values will range 1.25-1.50", so heavy rainfall will very
much be a concern. The only thing that may limit flash flood
potential is relatively progressive storm motion. Either way, the
trough axis will exit into W. TX/ far Eastern NM Sunday morning
taking rain/storm potential with it.
Starting Sunday afternoon, an UL ridge will build over the Desert
SW. Moisture will remain trapped beneath it as well as circulate
around it. The location of the high will largely prevent
thunderstorm development in spite of the moisture though the GFS
and to lesser degree the Euro suggest mountains and far western
areas may see a few storms Tuesday onward, but the NBM is not
buying into this solution except for bringing some slight chance
POPs (~20%) to the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A swath of light rain showers continues to move to the northeast
early this morning, lingering for KELP for a bit longer. More
SHRA are modeled to ride along the Int`l border during the day,
keeping vicinity showers in the forecast for KELP. There`s lower
confidence in these showers pushing into KDMN and KLRU today, but
convective showers are modeled to develop across northern areas
during the afternoon where skies are clearer. CIGs fall to as low
as 040-050 this morning with higher CIGs for KTCS and KDMN further
from the moisture plume. Winds will be AOB 10kts mainly from S-SW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 524 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. For
today, clouds continue to stream overhead associated with moisture
originating from Hurricane Lorena. The southern half of the CWA
will see continued light rain showers with the northern half
seeing some clearing in cloud cover and the chance of showers and
storms in the mountains. Any convective showers that develop are
capable of producing heavy rainfall, resulting in possible burn
scar flooding later today. Winds today will be light to modestly
breezy from the south.
Tomorrow will see the cloud shield move off to the east, but
moisture levels stay well above normal. Better storm coverage is
expected tomorrow afternoon with a low threat of flash flooding
due to slow storm motions. Tomorrow`s winds will remain southerly
but a bit lighter than today. Storm chances decrease on Sunday,
favoring eastern areas, as drier air begins to move in from the
west. Mainly dry conditions then expected Monday onward. Overnight
recoveries will be excellent through the weekend. Temperatures
will be 5-15 degrees below normal through Saturday, then
rebounding to slightly above normal by midweek.
Min RHs will be 35-55% through Sat, then falling to 15-35% early
next week; 50-80% in the Sacs through Sat, then 35-55%. Vent rates
range from poor to fair through Sun, then improving to fair to
very good.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  80  67  85  68 /  40  40  50  40
Sierra Blanca            75  60  79  60 /  50  40  60  40
Las Cruces               77  61  81  62 /  40  40  50  40
Alamogordo               79  60  83  61 /  30  40  50  40
Cloudcroft               57  44  61  45 /  40  30  70  40
Truth or Consequences    80  62  81  61 /  30  40  60  40
Silver City              74  56  75  56 /  50  40  70  40
Deming                   81  62  84  62 /  40  40  50  40
Lordsburg                79  62  82  62 /  50  30  60  30
West El Paso Metro       77  66  83  67 /  40  40  50  40
Dell City                78  62  82  61 /  30  30  40  30
Fort Hancock             78  66  84  66 /  60  40  60  40
Loma Linda               70  59  76  60 /  40  40  50  40
Fabens                   77  65  83  65 /  50  30  50  40
Santa Teresa             75  63  82  64 /  40  30  50  40
White Sands HQ           78  64  82  64 /  40  40  60  50
Jornada Range            77  61  82  61 /  30  40  60  50
Hatch                    81  62  84  62 /  30  30  60  40
Columbus                 77  63  83  64 /  40  30  50  40
Orogrande                76  60  80  61 /  40  40  50  40
Mayhill                  70  50  70  51 /  40  30  70  40
Mescalero                70  49  72  49 /  40  40  70  50
Timberon                 65  47  69  48 /  40  30  60  40
Winston                  75  52  74  51 /  40  40  70  40
Hillsboro                80  58  82  58 /  40  40  70  40
Spaceport                78  60  82  60 /  30  40  60  40
Lake Roberts             76  53  77  51 /  60  40  80  40
Hurley                   76  57  78  57 /  50  40  70  40
Cliff                    82  60  82  59 /  50  40  70  30
Mule Creek               78  57  79  57 /  40  40  70  30
Faywood                  75  58  78  58 /  40  40  70  40
Animas                   77  62  82  61 /  50  40  60  30
Hachita                  75  60  81  60 /  50  30  60  40
Antelope Wells           73  60  79  61 /  70  40  70  30
Cloverdale               70  58  75  58 /  70  40  70  30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion