Sagaponack, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

448
FXUS61 KOKX 021837
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
237 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach Tuesday night into Wednesday, then move
across from late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Strong
high pressure will follow from the west beginning later
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level ridge remains across the northeast, with surface high
pressure becoming centered over the area tonight. Another cold night
is expected with decent radiational cooling conditions. Did not go
as low as MOS with some high clouds expected to be streaming
overhead tonight. Temperatures across the interior and in the LI
Pine Barrens should be able to get down to the low 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure shifts offshore to our southeast on Friday but will
remain in control through the weekend. Moisture increases a bit with
somewhat of a return flow, bringing dewpoints back up to the 50s
and low 60s. High temperatures trend up through the weekend with
a W/SW flow, increasing heights and sunny skies. Highs each day
will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. These values are short of
any records by a few degrees, but well above normal for early
October.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:
* High pressure will remain in place along the coast through daytime
  Tue with dry conditions.
* The high will slide east Tue night as a cold front approaches from
  the west. Showers are likely from Tue night into early Thu with
  the frontal approach/passage, especially daytime Wed into Wed
  evening.
* Temps will be quite warm Mon/Tue, with highs 10-15 degrees above
  normal. With clouds and precip around and the area still in the
  warm sector most of the day on Tue, temps on Wed should still
  range 5-10 degrees above normal. With the passage of the front,
  temps on Thu should be a couple of degrees below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds southward into the region through the TAF
period.
VFR conditions. NE to E wind gives way to a hybrid E to SE
synoptic/seabreeze flow this afternoon. Winds becoming light and
variable or prevailing SW to W tonight. SW winds increase through
Friday morning and prevail at around 10kt in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday afternoon-Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 2AM for the
ocean waters as seas remain elevated. Thereafter, conditions
remain below SCA criteria as high pressure remains in control.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF from Tue night into Thu morning could be close to an inch.
No accompanying hydrologic issues expected attm.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion