Sage Lake, California Weather Forecast Discussion

033
FXUS66 KMFR 261015
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
315 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.DISCUSSION...Mainly sunny, dry and warm weather is expected
today through almost the entire weekend as high pressure remains
in place; Saturday will likely be the warmest day for much of
the area.
A significant pattern change then occurs Sunday night into
Monday. On Sunday, the dominant flow will become more
southwesterly as a strong upper level trough develops over the
Gulf of Alaska. We`ll probably eke out one more dry day. By late
Sunday, the trough will dig south over the northeastern Pacific,
then send a cold front into the Pacific Northwest Monday, followed
by another front Tuesday into early Wednesday as the trough axis
passes onshore somewhere along the Oregon or Washington coastline.
These fronts are likely to produce gusty south to southwest
winds, below normal temperatures, and a very high chance of much-
needed wetting rainfall area wide. It will be breezy everywhere as
these fronts pass, but wind concerns will be concentrated along
our typically wind-prone areas: the coast, the Shasta Valley, the
East Side, and higher terrain, where wind gusts could peak up to
50 mph. We`ve adjusted NBM winds upward during this period to
account for local terrain-induced effects. Meanwhile, with water
vapor transport (IVT) values forecast to be quite healthy
(especially for this time of year) and snow levels remaining well
above pass levels, widespread rainfall is expected. Preliminary
rainfall of 0.50 to 1 inch is forecast for most of the West Side,
0.25 to 0.5 inches over the East Side, and as much as 2-3 inches
along the coast, the coastal mountains, and western Siskiyou
County from Sunday night through Tuesday night. Showers are then
expected to continue into midweek as the upper level trough passes
overhead and onshore flow persists.
This will be the first event of its type this season, and the
first significant front to pass through the region since early
May. As a result of this and the usual lower skill of model
guidance during seasonal transitions, confidence is lower than
normal regarding the strength and timing of the fronts and the
passage of the upper level trough. Also, with this being the first
significant wind and rain event, some additional concerns arise.
Summer-weakened trees could be more easily susceptible to damage,
blocked drainages could result in ponding of stormwater, and rain
could combine with oil/residue buildup on area roads, making them
slicker than expected. Be aware of these hazards when out and
about early next week.
Models suggest that high pressure will return late next week, with
the area drying out and temperatures warming back up to near
normal by Friday. However, those same models show continued
activity across the Pacific which could easily mean additional
systems are possible next weekend. So, changeable weather should
be expected as we transition out of summer and into fall.
-BPN/Spilde
&&
.AVIATION...26/12Z TAFs...Other than a few fog patches during the
early morning and late night hours near the coastal valleys north
of Cape Blanco, dry high pressure will provide VFR area wide
today through tonight. Gusty north winds develop over the coastal
waters and near the coast this afternoon and evening with gusts
to near 25 knots at North Bend. -Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Friday, September 26, 2025...A
thermal trough along the Oregon Coast will maintain gusty northerly
winds south of Cape Blanco today, while winds ease across the north.
This will allow for below advisory conditions north of Cape Blanco.
But, stronger winds south of the Cape will bring steep to very steep
seas. Conditions will be at least hazardous to small craft there
with localized gale gusts and warning level seas this
afternoon/evening south of Gold Beach. These conditions persist into
early Saturday morning. A transition to northwest swell starts on
Saturday morning as winds decrease, limiting steep seas to waters
south of Port Orford into Saturday afternoon.
Seas look to remain below advisory level from Saturday afternoon
through Sunday afternoon. Then, an approaching front will bring
gusty southerly winds, with steep to very steep and hazardous seas
Sunday night into Monday. Active weather with a second front Monday
night into Tuesday should support hazardous wind/sea conditions
continuing into midweek. -TAD/Spilde
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 AM PDT Friday, September 26, 2025...
Warm and dry conditions will continue across the area through much
of the upcoming weekend. Breezy N-NW through E winds are impacting
the upper slopes and ridges in NorCal and west of the Cascades this
morning, but particularly in the Oregon Coast Range mountains.
Humidity recovery is moderate in most areas (40-60%), though some
poor RH values are showing up at Red Mound RAWS (just north of
Brookings) where it`s only 21% at this early hour. After another
warm and dry day today, easterly flow over area peaks and ridgelines
will bring another night of moderate to locally poor recoveries
tonight into early Saturday morning. Recoveries across the Cascades
and terrain in Siskiyou County are forecast to be only in the 25-35%
range. The easterly winds should ease somewhat later tonight as the
thermal trough weakens. We`ll maintain a headline for the dryness
and elevated east winds, but warnings aren`t necessary.
While Saturday remains warm and dry, recoveries into Sunday morning
increase. Southerly winds develop across the area Sunday, with gusty
winds developing over east side terrain and into the southern Shasta
Valley during Sunday afternoon. Widespread wetting rainfall is
likely as a couple of strong fronts move through the area, one late
Sunday night into Monday and another Tuesday through Tuesday night.
In addition to the wind/rain, Mon-Wed will also see higher than
usual humidity and below normal temperatures. -Spilde
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ356-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.
&&
$$
MAS

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion