Saint Bernard Grove, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

086
FXUS64 KLIX 081735
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Wow what a nice start to the new week! Temperatures early this
morning ranged from a few (lucky) spots briefly touching the upper
50`s to many in the low to mid 60`s, with low 70`s over the
Southshore/SE LA. Climatology/records show this not to be record-
breaking by all means, but a good bit below normal for many.
Taking a step back with a brief overview glancing at GOES-16 Total
PW illustrates the nose of deepest/driest continental air has
pressed into the region, with the front draped into the northern
Gulf. 12Z KLIX RAOB illustrates the shallow depth of the driest
air near the surface, with recent HRRR soundings mixing the PBL
out nicely going through the rest of the afternoon. Did make
adjustments to the next 6-8hrs (17-01Z) afternoon dewpoints to
blend in 25th to 10th percentile to account for the NBM`s common
weak point in deterministic guidance, matching ongoing trends
well so far which brings MinRH`s into the low 30`s areawide. Very
comfortable feel to the air! Next feature to monitor, looking at
GOES-16 VIS is a pretty evident surface low spinning over the
northeast Gulf. Currently, encountering sufficient westerly shear
and dry air into the circulation which, fortunately, is not a
concern for tropical development given these reasons, but will
slowly drift west bringing a lobe of moisture with it. 09/15Z RAP
guidance catches this well advancing into far eastern areas
tonight, spreading west early Tuesday. CAMs identify enough
associated moisture and lift to surge a few scattered
showers/storms (squalls) west Tuesday morning into the afternoon
hours. However, these will be battling the dry continental
airmass in place as they progress west. Not overly confident on
coverage at this point, with NBM coming in generally in the 20-40%
range (50-60% coastal) which is plausible given the aforementioned
meteorological reasonings and short-range trends. Overall, best
chances for a passing shower or storm will be across coastal SE LA
and MS, and any advancement westward/inland could struggle as dry
air eventually winds over dissipating activity. Will keep an eye
on it. No additional adjustments to temperatures or major impacts
anticipated in the short-term.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Going into mid/late week, quiet! High pressure begins to win over
the eastern/southeastern US keeping to keep conditions calm and
quiet. Few extra shots of dry continental air will continue to
keep it comfortable following afternoon mixing. Highs in the low
to mid 90`s but afternoon dewpoints in the 50`s to 60`s will
prevent any excessive heat concerns. KLG
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions can be expected for all area terminals through this
afternoon and tonight. Winds will remain occasionally breezy this
afternoon through about 23-00Z, ranging 06-10kts bearing 020 to
040, but lessen overnight. Few SCT SHRA/TSRA will be possible for
coastal TAF sites Tuesday morning thru early afternoon, with best
probs introduced to TAFs with greatest confidence (KMSY, KGPT,
KNEW and KHUM). Expect brief reductions in VIS/CIGs with any
passing SHRA/TSRA, with VFR outside of this activity. KLG
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
This afternoon, winds continue to progressively lower across marine
areas from what was observed overnight, however remain elevated in
the 10-15kt range for outer Gulf zones. Given this trend and next
6hr wind forecast guidance, decided to keep SCS (Exercise Caution)
headlines through 6PM for all waters expect Lake
Pontchartrain/Maurepas, where winds are already diminishing lower
and will continue that way. Winds for all areas relax going into
tonight. Next feature to monitor will be a weak wave over the NE
Gulf, helping to send showers/storms west along progressive easterly
flow setting up. Can`t rule out some gusty winds/squalls with these
showers/storms early Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon. Outside of this
activity, could also briefly see SCS (caution) or SCY (advisory)
conditions for far eastern waters. Otherwise, conditions will settle
down mid to late week, turning dry with light to occasionally breezy
winds and light waves/seas on the order of 1-2ft for protected
waters, to 2-4ft for Gulf waters. KLG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  87  67  89 /   0  20   0   0
BTR  64  90  70  91 /   0  20   0  10
ASD  65  87  68  89 /   0  40  10  10
MSY  73  89  75  91 /   0  40  10  10
GPT  70  87  70  89 /  10  40  10  10
PQL  68  88  68  89 /  10  40  10  10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion