Saint Cloud, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

390
FXUS62 KMLB 301806
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
206 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions this week;
  life-threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of
  at least 6 to 9 feet, minor to moderate beach erosion expected
- Breezy and gusty conditions through much of the week, with the
  highest gusts along the coast
- Periods of scattered showers into Wednesday; higher rain chances
  and locally heavy rainfall leading to instances of flooding,
  especially along the coast, late week into the weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Now-Tonight...Earlier this morning, Imelda reached hurricane status
over the Atlantic. As of 2 PM, the storm had maximum sustained
winds of 85 mph, strengthening a bit further. On its western
periphery, the pressure gradient has tightened and winds have
responded by frequently gusting 20-30 mph. The 15z XMR sounding
revealed very dry air above 600mb with practically every bit of
the 2.1" PW focused in the low levels of the atmosphere. This is
leading to a mostly cloudy day over much of east-central Florida.
As a result, temperatures are near to slightly below normal this
afternoon.
Beach conditions remain hazardous this afternoon with several
cameras showing wave run-up to the dune lines and sea walls (notably
in Volusia County). High tide is about an hour away (2:42 PM at
Trident Pier). Long-period swell from distant Hurricane Humberto,
combined with the high tide cycles, is likely to produce minor to
moderate beach erosion, in addition to life-threatening rip
currents. Stay out of the water at area beaches!
Into tonight, broken bands of isolated to scattered showers will
continue but moreso remain pinned along the immediate coast. Models
advect some drier air across inland portions of the area, keeping
higher PW values at the coast and over the local Atlantic. At a
minimum, partly cloudy conditions will remain as temperatures
cool an extra degree or two overnight into the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday...Weak subsidence moves overhead on Wednesday, marking a
transition away from Imelda`s influence (as it moves seaward) and a
return to the typical synoptic-scale pattern. Breezy winds, turning
northeast, will be occasionally gusty (especially at the coast),
albeit weaker than today. Comparably lower PW of 1.5-1.8" will also
help to temper rain chances areawide. The forecast maintains a 15-
30% chance of showers near and north of I-4 with higher chances
along the coast (30-45%). Lightning chances were removed due to
plentiful dry air aloft, alongside poor lapse rates and
instability. Temperatures reach the low to mid 80s once again,
similar to today, with overnight lows dropping back into the low
to mid 70s.
Poor to hazardous beach conditions remain along the central Florida
Atlantic coast Wednesday. Breaking waves of at least 5 to 6 feet in
the surf zone and a high risk of rip currents will continue.
Entering the water is highly discouraged!
Thursday-Monday (modified previous)...High pressure settles in north
of the local area through late week, then moves offshore late this
weekend and into early next week. Meanwhile, a series of mid-upper
level shortwaves look to pass through the Southeast U.S. A tight
pressure gradient due to the ridge to the north will continue to
produce breezy to gusty onshore flow. Easterly winds around 15-20
mph are forecast, with higher gusts along the coast in the
afternoons, each day through Saturday. Combined with showers, these
winds will help keep temperatures near to even slightly below normal.
Models are in good agreement that higher coverage of showers returns
Thursday over coastal and southern portions of the area. Then,
higher rain chances spread area-wide into the weekend, as deeper
moisture (PWATs 2+" at times) advects into east central Florida.
PoPs 35-70% from northwest to southeast Thursday become 60-70%
across the forecast area by Saturday. Poor lapse rates look to limit
the lightning threat, though isolated to scattered strikes will be
possible. Multiple rounds of showers, pushed onshore by breezy
easterly winds, will be capable of locally heavy rainfall, thanks to
ample available moisture. The threat for excessive rainfall will be
increased in any training showers, especially along the coast in
places that see multiple rounds over several days. The risk for
localized flooding will need to be monitored late week into the
weekend as soils become increasingly saturated.
Dangerous beach conditions are forecast to continue through at least
Saturday, due to continued breezy and gusty winds, as well as
incoming swells from distant Major Hurricane Humberto.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions continue through the week
into at least Saturday, despite Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto
moving east over the Atlantic. Northerly winds Wednesday (around 15-
20 kt) gradually veer east-northeast Thursday into the weekend. High
pressure builds south, north of the local Atlantic. Seas will likely
not subside until later Saturday or Sunday, peaking today 8-12 ft
nearshore and up to 16 ft offshore. Wave heights fall a bit
Wednesday but grow again Thursday into Friday, especially over the
Gulf Stream (10-12 ft). Small Craft Advisories remain in effect
through at least Friday night.
Broken bands of scattered showers will continue to rotate around the
western periphery of departing Hurricane Imelda. Lower rain chances
exist Wednesday before higher moisture returns Thursday into the
weekend, when additional rounds of rain and a few lightning storms
are possible.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Although Hurricane Imelda continues to steer clear away from the
local airspace, increasing moisture and a tight pressure gradient
will keep predominately MVFR conditions present thru most of the TAF
period. Bands of showers will press onshore this afternoon, bringing
impacts to KDAB/KTIX/KMLB, necessitating the addition of TEMPO for
wind gusts up to 30 knots, visibility reductions due to rain and
reduced ceilings. Outside of gusty showers, north winds of 12-16
knots with gusts to 22-25 last through the early evening. Isolated
showers remain along the coast overnight, shifting south towards
early morning. Northerly winds persist over the next 24 hours. A
small hint of patchy fog and/or low stratus prior to 12Z for
terminals north of KMLB, but confidence too low at this time to
include.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  84  74  83 /  30  40  40  50
MCO  73  87  73  85 /  10  30  30  40
MLB  74  86  75  84 /  30  40  50  60
VRB  73  87  74  85 /  30  40  50  60
LEE  71  87  72  85 /  10  20  20  40
SFB  72  86  73  85 /  20  30  30  50
ORL  73  87  73  85 /  10  20  30  40
FPR  72  87  74  85 /  30  40  50  60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion