Saint Croix, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

511
FXUS63 KLMK 061929
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
329 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Clearing skies this afternoon and evening.
*  Cool and dry tonight. Lows Sunday and Monday mornings may
   approach record low temperatures for this time of year (40s).
*  Beautiful weather Sunday and Monday, with afternoon highs in the
   70s.
*  A very dry weather pattern is expected for next week with
   gradually warming temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Light rain continues this afternoon in portions of the Bluegrass and
Lake Cumberland regions, but this precip will be winding down over
the next 1-3 hours. Notable dry air advection in the lower to mid-
levels from the NW will allow skies to gradually clear from NW to SE
this afternoon and evening. Areas NW of a Morgantown to Shelbyville
line are already enjoying more sunshine early this afternoon.
Temperatures are quickly rebounding into the lower 70s in southern
IN and west-central KY. For the Bluegrass/Lake Cumberland areas,
temperatures will rebound into mid 60s shortly after the rain ends.
Some areas, depending on how far west you are, will see upper 60s to
near 70 by late afternoon.
Tonight, mostly clear skies and light winds are expected. Some fog
will be possible, especially in the valleys of the eastern CWA
(where the clouds clear latest this evening). Lows Sunday morning
will dip into the mid 40s to near 50. Lexington will likely approach
its daily record low of 47 degrees for September 7th.
A mid/upper level trough will continue to rotate ENE across the
Great Lakes and eastern Canada through the remainder of the weekend.
At the surface, high pressure will advance across the Midwest and
Ohio Valley during this time. Sunday looks beautiful, with highs
ranging through the 70s (generally low to mid 70s in southern IN and
northern KY, and mid to upper 70s in south-central KY). Sunday night
will be clear with a light NE wind. Lows Monday morning will likely
reach the low to mid 40s in most rural areas (upper 40s to near 50
in some urban environments). A handful of select cool spots may even
reach the upper 30s (such as KY Mesonet stations in Hancock, Meade,
and Harrison counties).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Sfc high pressure starts off over the Ohio Valley Monday morning
before moving off to the northeast. It`ll be another spectacular
day, with highs in the mid/upper 70s.
An upper level shortwave trough is forecast to move north of the
region Tuesday into Wednesday, eventually becoming a fairly
persistent upper level trough over the eastern US late in the week.
During this time, an upper level ridge will be centered over the
central CONUS. We`ll maintain a relatively dry airmass throughout
next week, and the chance for rain is very low.
Temperatures will gradually warm next week as ridging aloft
amplifies to our west. We`ll see the development of southerly return
flow on Tue ahead of the shortwave trough, which will help boost
afternoon temps into the low to mid 80s. Morning lows will still be
cool, ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. Highs in the mid 80s to
near 90 will be possible mid to late next week. Morning lows in the
50s to near 60 will be more common during the second half of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Mid-level clouds still blanket much of central KY in the wake of a
cold front now sinking well southeast of the area. The back edge of
the clouds is now approaching SDF, and drier air moving into the
region will allow these clouds to continue to clear from NW to SE.
Ceilings will briefly dip below 5 kft only for the first hour or two
of this forecast period at LEX and RGA before improving. Likewise,
light rain is ending at BWG and will diminish in the next 1-2 hours
at LEX and RGA.
W/NW winds will continue at 5-8 kts through sunset before
diminishing. Winds go light and variable overnight with high
pressure building in, and skies will stay mostly clear. Some fog
will be possible early Sunday, especially near RGA and surrounding
areas that see clouds clear the latest this evening. NW winds will
pick back up to 5-9 kts after 15Z Sunday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Record Low Temperatures Possible...
Sun, Sept 7th       Mon, Sept 8th       Tues, Sept 9th
        Rec (Yr) | FCST     Rec (Yr) | FCST     Rec (Yr) | FCST
SDF     46 (1988) | 52      46 (1956) | 50      44 (1883) | 53
LEX     47 (2017) | 47      45 (1956) | 45      45 (2024) | 49
BWG     43 (1988) | 50      47 (1956) | 49      44 (1958) | 52
FFT     43 (1988) | 47      42 (1988) | 45      43 (2024) | 48
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW/CSG/CG

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion