Saint John, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

747
FXUS63 KDDC 062330
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
630 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued dry weather tonight and Sunday
- A chance of showers and storms Monday
- Rest of next week dry and warm
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
We will be weak split flow aloft tonight and into Sunday. The net
result is a dry forecast. A cloud deck will eventually erode as the
day continues with mid level clouds expected tomorrow. Lows tonight
will be a little cooler than what is typical with values in the low
to mid 50s. A nice day is expected tomorrow a mix of 70s in the east
to 80s out west.
A weak upper level wave moves across the greater region Friday. This
feature make spark off some showers and storms during the day. This
will be our last shot at moisture for a while. The rest of the extended
period looks to feature upper level ridging based off deterministic
model output as well as their ensemble counterparts. Highs will trend
warmer as the business week continues. A mix of 80s to 90s looks
likely for the FA across southwest Kansas as the week continues.
Lows look to be in the 50s and 60s for much of the week.
Some of the long term models like the ECMWF shows an upper level wave
moving across the greater region late Friday night and into Saturday
morning. This may spark of showers and storms during this period.
Confidence though just based off deterministic models is low. Some
of the ensemble counterparts as weaker and don`t have much of a wave
moving through. If this were to be the case, then a dry forecast
would continues as we finish out the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Southwest Kansas will remain situated between a deepening
trough of low pressure at the surface over eastern Colorado and
an area of high pressure slowly moving eastward across Central
Kansas and Northern Oklahoma. This will result in keeping the
winds southerly at 10 knots or less overnight. These southerly
winds are expected to increase to 15-20 knots between 15Z and
18Z Sunday. BUFR soundings and ensemble guidance continue to
support VFR conditions developing by 02Z Sunday as clouds
continue to erode over the next few hours. VFR ceilings in the
3000-6000 ft AGL range will be possible at times late tonight
and Sunday, particularly in the Garden City and Liberal areas.
In these areas, we also will be monitoring the potential for
isolated fog development late tonight however the latest SREF
indicates only a 20-30% chance for visibilities to drop to 3
miles or less around daybreak Sunday so have decided to leave
any mention of fog out of the Garden City and Liberal TAFS.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion