Saint Johns Cemetery, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

865
FXUS63 KICT 020822
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
322 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms this morning along and east of I-135.
- Above average temperatures expected today through the weekend
- Cool down arrives next week with periodic chances of showers
  and storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Despite being on the backside of the primary shortwave trough
(located over the Missouri River Valley and sliding eastward), a
a very subtle perturbation in the upper flow exists across
portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. This, along
with some weak mid-level WAA on the eastern periphery of a
building ridge from the southwest, is creating a region of
ascent generally along and east of I-135/US-81 early this
morning. A region of ACCAS has already developed from Concordia
to Ponca City as of 3AM, and a few isolated showers and storms
should develop shortly and meander eastward across the Flint
Hills this morning. As the main trough axis exits eastward and
the mid/upper ridge becomes more dominate across the region
later today, increased subsidence should help to gradually end
rain chances either late this morning or early this afternoon.
Similar to yesterday, rainfall totals won`t amount to much, but
some locations could start off wet this morning before giving
way to mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 80s.
With the ridge building in from the southwest, a period of warmer
temperatures is expected going into the weekend. Generally speaking,
afternoon highs and nighttime lows will be around 10 degrees above
average for the beginning of October; this will put afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to potentially the low 90s, and nighttime lows in
the mid 60s both Friday and Saturday. Additionally, with an
approaching strong shortwave trough and antecedent increasing flow
aloft across the Rockies, surface pressure falls across the High
Plains will tighten the pressure gradient Friday and Saturday.
Breezy to windy conditions are possible, especially Saturday
afternoon. Currently, wind gusts around 45-50 mph appear
possible Saturday afternoon across portions of central Kansas.
Fortunately, despite the recent dry-ish period, vegetation
remains quite green, and sufficient moisture will keep RH values
over 35% which will significantly dampen any fire weather
concerns despite the windy conditions.
The aforementioned strong shortwave trough is expected to eject into
the central/northern plains late on Sunday, and this will likely
serve as the catalyst for some cooler air along with rain chances
Sunday night into Monday morning. A slow moving/stalling cold front
will be draped across the area on Monday and Tuesday. This, along
with a series of perturbations embedded within zonal flow
aloft, will support periodic chances for showers and storms are
through much of the beginning of next week. At this time, it
appears so through the cold front will eventually push through
the region by the middle of next week, and a couple of days of
more fall-like temperatures appear likely.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail over the next
24 hours, though there are some caveats between 8-15Z this
morning.
While conditions are clear as of 530Z, this is a chance of a few
isolated showers and storms along and east of the I-135 corridor
this morning between 8-15Z. Currently, there are no mentions of
this in the TAFs as chances remain below 20%, but amendments may
be necessary, especially if coverage of activity is higher than
currently expected. After 15Z, chances of isolated showers and
storms should begin to wane, and VFR conditions will dominate
thereafter. South winds around 5-15 knots should remain steady
throughout the day, and gusts over 20 knots will be possible at
times during the afternoon hours.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion