Saint Josephs Cemetery New Hampshire Weather Forecast Discussion

592
FXUS61 KBOX 111923
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
323 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm brings rain and strong coastal winds Sunday
into Monday night, along with the minor coastal flooding and
erosion. Unsettled weather lingers into Tuesday, then blustery
and generally dry with below normal temperatures for mid to
late in the workweek as an unseasonably cool air mass moves in.
High pressure builds into the region next weekend with milder
conditions and less wind.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:
* Dry with seasonable temps
Clouds will be increasing tonight as moisture from coastal
storm to the south advances northward. However, it will remain
dry with any rain holding off until Sunday. NE winds will be
increasing overnight, especially along the coast as pressure
gradient increases. Lows will range from mid 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Rain arrives from south to north during Sunday with steadiest
  and heaviest rain Sunday night into Monday
* Strong NE winds developing late Sun into Mon along the coast,
  especially Cape/Islands where gusts to 50+ mph expected with
  some power outages possible
* Pockets of minor coastal flooding during high tide
Overview...
Complex synoptic set up as coastal storm emerges off the mid Atlc
coast but strong downstream blocking over the Maritimes will result
in the storm becoming quasi-stationary with not much northward
progress into Monday. Strong high pres to the north combined with
the storm to the south will result in a strong pressure gradient and
persistent low level jet which will act on PWATs nearing 1.5 inches
to bring widespread long duration rainfall to SNE. Strong NE wind
gusts will also develop, especially along the coast, and pockets of
coastal flooding are likely which we will discuss in section below.
Rainfall...
Rain should be overspreading the south coast region during Sun
morning before lifting across the rest of SNE through the early
afternoon. The period of heaviest rainfall should be Sun night into
Mon as the low level jet lifts north into the region with PWATs
increasing to 1.25-1.50 inches. However, we are not looking at heavy
rainfall rates with max rates probably not much more than 0.25`/hour
so flooding impacts are not anticipated. During Monday into Mon
evening, the precip is expected to become more convective and
showery as elevated instability develops at the edge of the dry slot
and can`t rule out an isolated t-storm during this time. Total
rainfall from this event through Tue is expected to be 1-2 inches in
western New Eng and 2-3 inches across RI and eastern MA with locally
higher amounts possible especially in eastern MA. However, this
rainfall will be spread out over 2+ days and will be very beneficial
given the longer term precip deficits without dealing with flooding
impacts.
Strong winds...
NE winds will be ramping up during Sunday afternoon with the peak of
the wind Sun night into early Mon within the core of the low level
jet. One factor that complicates the forecast is the low level jet
is weakening as it lifts north into SNE which will limit gusts
somewhat. 925 mb winds peak at 60-70 kt south of New Eng Sun night
then weakens Monday as it moves northward. As a result we expect the
max wind gusts to be over the Islands where soundings support peak
gusts up to 60 mph, with 50 mph gusts possible over Cape Cod, and up
to 40 mph gusts along the immediate coast. Elsewhere, gusts to 25-35
mph is expected further inland. Given trees are fully leaved some
tree damage and power outages are possible, mainly over the Cape and
Islands.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Coastal low slowly pulls away by Tue. Steadiest rains over eastern
  and coastal portions of SNE Mon night and Tue, with gradually
  decreasing north to NW winds.
* Minor coastal/tidal flooding possible at Nantucket for Tue aftn
  high tide but water levels are slightly lower than Sun and Mon
  aftn high tide cycles.
* Blustery and dry with below normal temps for mid to late week, as
  much as 10 degrees below normal. Generally dry, but could be some
  spotty showers over the Cape and Islands.
Details:
Monday Night and Tuesday:
Still dealing with rain and northeast to northerly winds as we
remain under the influence of the coastal low from the weekend.
There is some solution spread with regard to how quickly the coastal
low moves eastward/offshore from the mid-Atlantic states, with some
deterministic models (00z ECMWF / 12z Canadian) showing a secondary
low meandering around the NJ coast Mon night/Tue; we view this as an
outlier outcome right now given limited support in ensemble
membership analyses.
Rain will continue to fall at a steady light to locally moderate
clip early Mon night; as we move into the overnight Mon night to
early Tue timeframe, the character of the rain trends more
intermittent/showery or even drizzly for much of the interior as
drier air starts working in aloft. Focus for steadier rains later
Mon night through Tue is along the eastern MA coast aligned along an
inverted trough, and it very slowly trends more intermittent in
coastal eastern MA by Tue night. Additional rains covering the Mon
night to Tue night period are around a half inch or less for much of
Southern New England, but with an additional inch of rain still
possible for coastal eastern MA.
Winds will continue out of the NE Mon night with gusts 20-25 mph
over the interior and around 30-35 mph in gusts for the Cape and the
Islands. These will be coming around to the N and eventually NW with
a decrease in speeds as we move into Tue, with gusts over the Cape
and Islands around 25-30 mph for Tue. That probably will not
translate to any additional wind-related impacts, but as winds come
around to NW Tue, that could influence the coastal flood forecast
for Nantucket, with Stevens Institute showing a continued 1 ft surge
around the Tue aftn high tide which could support a worst-case minor
coastal flood forecast for that high tide cycle.
Wednesday thru Friday:
The coastal low moves far enough away into the Canadian Maritimes
but ends up slowing/stalling out as a deep upper trough sets up over
New England. As this happens, it draws down an unseasonably cold
airmass on NW winds. 925 mb temps drop to around zero Celsius or
even a touch colder.
This period is generally dry with strong sfc high pressure in
control, except for possible ocean-enhanced cloud cover and limited
chances at ocean-effect rain showers out over the Cape and Islands.
However below normal temperatures are favored to go along with
blustery NW winds which will make it feel cooler. Highs on Thurs may
struggle to reach the low 50s!
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tonight...High confidence.
VFR cigs. Ceilings lower into the lower-end VFR range early Sun
morning. Winds become light and variable during the late
morning/early afternoon, before becoming E-NE around 10 kt by
early Sun morning.
Sunday...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.
MVFR/IFR developing by afternoon, especially towards the south
coast. Rainfall developing from south to north, especially
during the afternoon hours.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Strong
winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. SHRA likely.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to
30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 35 kt. Slight
chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
We upgraded to storm warnings for much of the south coastal
waters for a period of 50 kt gusts Sun afternoon and night with
gale warnings for the rest of the waters. Winds slowly diminish
during Mon afternoon. Seas build to 13-17 ft over outer waters
Monday. Vsbys reduced in rain and fog Sun into Mon.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 17 ft. Rain showers.
Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to
13 ft. Rain showers likely.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain
showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance
of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough
seas. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The biggest impact from this coastal storm will be beach erosion as
significant wave action impacts 3 successive tide cycles from Sunday
into Monday.
Regarding inundation potential, we issued a coastal flood advisory
for the Sunday afternoon high tide for the east coast MA and RI
south coast. We think the greatest impacts with the Sunday high tide
will be along the ocean exposed RI coast from Narragansett to
Westerly where highest surge up to 2 ft expected with minor
inundation. Other areas of minor inundation include Nantucket and
Edgartown on Marthas Vineyard  Along the rest of the eastern MA
coast storm surge will be 1-1.5 ft with increasing wave action
leading to pockets of minor splashover.
The late Sunday night high tide is lower, especially along the
eastern MA coast where inundation is not expected. However, higher
surge and waves will likely lead to minor inundation at Nantucket,
Marthas Vineyard and ocean exposed RI south coast.
The Monday afternoon high tide is also expected to be impacted with
widespread minor inundation along the east coast and ocean exposed
RI south coast. Storm surge of 1.5-2 ft will coincide with the
highest seas during this time.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     Wind Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for MAZ022.
     High Wind Warning from 5 PM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for
     MAZ023-024.
RI...High Wind Warning from 5 PM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for
     RIZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Sunday for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ230.
     Gale Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ231-
     233-234-250-251-254.
     Storm Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ232-
     235-237-255-256.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Loconto
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/McMinn
MARINE...KJC/Loconto
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion