Saint Leo, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

181
FXUS62 KTBW 050746
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
346 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
The familiar pattern of the past few days continues today. A
stationary front, continues to take its job seriously by remaining
draped across south Florida. Once again convection will likely favor
the southern and inland portions of the forecast areas, along the
boundary.A slight difference for today will be a bit more moisture
streaming in from the Atlantic along the stronger E/NE flow. Showers
and storms that develop along the interior this afternoon will be
pushed towards the west coast in the late afternoon/evening.
For the weekend, conditions will be similar with the only difference
being the stationary front migrating a little bit north. By Sunday a
cold front moves over the southeast towards North Florida. Rain
chances increase at the beginning of next week as moisture
associated with the sinking cold front moves over FL. The front
continues to sink into central FL early next week then becomes
stationary and lingers for a few days.
Temperatures will be around normal with some rain-free pockets
reaching a little above normal. Areas with heat indices in the
triple digits could also be possible the next couple of days.
Overall rain chances increase into the weekend and the beginning of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Mostly VFR conditions expected throughout the day. Showers and
storms begin to develop over the interior in the afternoon then
push towards the coast. Some of these showers and storms could
cause periods of reduced flight categories if they move over
terminals. VFR conditions return overnight as storms diminish.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Showers and storms linger over the water this morning as a low
pressure system remains off the west coast. The pattern shifts over
the weekend as another front moves towards Florida. The flow will
become more easterly, favoring showers moving over the waters in the
evenings. Overall winds will remain below 15kts outside of any
thunderstorm activity
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
No major fire weather concerns as moisture levels keep RH values
above critical.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  91  78 /  50  30  60  20
FMY  90  76  89  77 /  80  50  70  30
GIF  92  76  92  76 /  60  20  70  20
SRQ  91  75  90  77 /  60  50  60  30
BKV  93  73  92  72 /  40  20  60  20
SPG  90  77  88  77 /  60  40  60  30
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion