Saint Michael, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

061
FXAK69 PAFG 051341
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
541 AM AKDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Stormy conditions are continuing today across much of the West
Coast. A brief break is anticipated Tonight and Monday before the
next coastal storm moves into the area Monday night. This storm
will bring strong winds, and heavy rainfall to much of Northern
Alaska Tuesday through Thursday. We are anticipating there to be
coastal impacts from this storm including coastal flooding,
erosion, and wave run up.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated to scattered showers in the Eastern Interior today.
- Alaska Range Gap winds of 65 mph are continuing this morning,
  and will begin to weaken this afternoon.
- Widespread heavy rainfall is possible starting Monday night and
  ending early Thursday. Storm total rainfall amounts are in the
  1.0" to 1.5" range. Some locations could receive up to 2
  inches.
- Gusty southwest winds are possible Monday night and through
  Wednesday. In the higher terrain wind gusts could be up to 40
  mph, while the Interior valleys could see wind gusts up to 30
  mph.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- With our current low in the Bering Sea weakening, coastal
  impacts from this system are diminishing. Lingering showers and
  gusty winds associated with a warm front will exit the Northwest
  Interior this afternoon.
- A brief dry period for the West Coast will last until Monday
  afternoon.
- Late Monday afternoon/evening, a low in the Bering brings its
  initial front to the coast bringing moderate rain and gusty
  winds. These conditions will be a prelude to the conditions on
  Tuesday.
- Early Tuesday morning the low in the Bering will be undergoing
  rapid intensification. Along with coastal impacts from this
  system, there will be strong southwesterly winds and heavy
  rainfall. Some areas could see wind gusts up to 75 mph.
- This can result in widespread coastal impacts including coastal
   flooding and/or significant erosion. More details can be found
   in "coastal hazard potential" section.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Easterly winds of 30 to 40 mph will continue this morning, and
  will begin to weaken this afternoon. Winds will generally be
  light Sunday night to Wednesday morning. Wednesday evening winds
  shift southwesterly and then westerly. These westerly winds
  could bring coastal flooding and erosion. These concerns are
  highlighted in the Coastal Hazard Potential section.
- Light snow develops in the Central Brooks Range Sunday morning
  and continues into the evening before ending. More widespread
  snow develops in the Central/Western Brooks Range and North
  Slope Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday night. Scattered snow
  showers could persist into Thursday.
- Storm total snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches in
   Anaktuvuk Pass and the North Slope, 4 to 9 inches in Atigun
   Pass and potentially upwards of 18 inches in the Western
   Brooks Range north/east of Shungnak.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The weakening 985 mb Bering Sea Low will begin to move southeast
into the Gulf of Alaska, as the stout ridge that currently
occupies the Gulf moves east. This low will provide our support
for isolated to scattered showers later today in the Eastern
Interior. With the ridge moving off to the east, our pressure
gradient across the Alaska Range will slack, and our current
threat of gap winds will subside by this afternoon.
Looking towards Monday, a 980 mb low will move over Shemya on the
Aleutian Islands. This low will move into the Central Bering
overnight Monday. During this time the low will begin to rapidly
intensify. The 06z Deterministic GFS/Nam have this low bottoming
out around 958 mb west of St. Lawrence Island Tuesday morning. The
ECMWF has the low slightly weaker at around 968 mb. The ensembles
have much better agreement this morning. The GEFS and ECMWF Ens
has the range of potential low pressures from 957 mb to 970 mb.
With this much better agreement we are expecting the low to bottom
out in the low 960s. Previously there was some uncertainty
regarding the track of this system. The ensembles and
deterministic models are in agreement that the Low will move west
of St. Lawrence Island and into the Bering Strait. With this
track there will be a large fetch of strong southwesterly winds
into Norton Sound. The warm front that is connected to this low is
accompanied with a very potent 850 mb jet. This jet is 60 to 75
knots that will stretch from the Bering Sea to the Kuskokwim
Valley and then the Tanana Valley. With heavy rainfall expected to
accompany this front, we are expecting winds to be able to freely
mix down. There will be an atmospheric river that is feeding
moisture into Mainland Alaska. This atmospheric river is producing
precipitable water anomalies of 3 to 5 sigma across the Interior.
Widespread 1 to 1.5 inches of rain is likely with some areas
receiving up to 2 inches of rain. The impacts from this system
will be a multi-day event stretching from Monday night to Thursday
morning.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7..
As the low moves north into the Chuckchi Sea, the North Slope will
begin to see impacts Wednesday morning. Southerly wind gusts are
anticipated to be up to 40 mph across the Western Arctic Plains
and Coast. The weakening warm front will produce some rain/snow
showers along the coast and rain on the Arctic Plains. The winds
will shift westerly as the low moves towards the Canadian
Archipelago Thursday. These winds should be 30 to 40 mph, with
the exception of near Kaktovik. Kaktovik could see winds near 50
mph Thursday night and Friday.
Our next Bering Sea low will move into the Far Western portions of
the Bering Friday. This low is expected to remain on the western
portion of the Bering, this will limit the impacts onto the West
Coast. There will be some weak features that will rotate around
this low bringing some gusty winds and rain chances to the West
Coast this weekend.
&&
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 through 5...
Coastal Flood Watches have been issued from Utqiagvik to Hooper
Bay. While some places won`t see "warning level flooding" there is
a chance for significant impacts in all of these spots and every
community along the coast. Details below.
We are anticipating 2 to 3 high tides that will see higher waters.
For communities that are south of the Bering Strait, these high
tides will be Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday morning, and Wednesday
afternoon. North of the Bering Strait it will be the two Wednesday
high tides. There could be concerns Thursday morning particularly
when the winds turn northwesterly, but there is limited tidal
forecast data for that morning. Hooper Bay to Nunam Iqua is
expected to see 3 to 6 feet above mean high water (MHHW). Stebbins
to Shaktoolik will be 4 to 8 feet above MHHW. Koyuk will have the
highest water of 5 to 11 feet above MHHW. Elim to Wales will see 4
to 8 feet above MHHW. Shishmaref to Kotzebue is expecting 3 to 8
feet above MHHW. Red Dog to Point Lay is expecting 4 to 8 feet
above MHHW. Wainwright to Utqiagvik is expecting 3 to 5 feet
above MHHW.
We are expecting significant erosion for many along the coast
with coastal flooding likely, especially in more vulnerable
locations. Preparations should be made for a strong coastal storm
everywhere along the coast as most, if not all communities will
see some sort of impact.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ801>803-815>818.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ847-849.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ820>822-824-825-827.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-808-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-810-851-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-814-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859>861.
&&
$$
Dennis

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion