Saint Michael, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

583
FXUS63 KMPX 151742
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1242 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue before more seasonable
temperatures return to end the week.
- Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms exist Wednesday
into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
It`s warm and muggy early this morning with temperatures still in
the upper 60s to mid 70s just after 2am. To the west, a low
continues to spin over the Dakotas, with southerly flow sending
ample moisture into Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Showers and
storms along the Minnesota/South Dakota border have diminished
rapidly over the past few hours. Some afternoon redevelopment of
showers and storms may be possible across central and eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but the best forcing will be across
North Dakota and northern Minnesota as the trough lifts north of the
International Border. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the
week with upper 80s and low 90s across much of southern and western
Minnesota and mid 80s elsewhere.
By Wednesday, an upper low becomes cut off over the Dakotas and sets
up shop there through the end of the work week with ridging
strengthens over the Great Lakes region. This will allow for an
unsettled stretch of weather into the first half of the weekend.
PoPs and QPF are highest across western Minnesota throughout this
time period (40-60 PoPs), but generally, the NBM`s blanket of 20-40
PoPs elsewhere seems reasonable. As mentioned in previous
discussions, this precip will mostly be diurnally driven as there is
no strong synoptic forcing. This also means the chances for
organized severe weather is low. Additionally, high temperatures are
expected to settle back towards mid September normals Thursday
through the end of the period. Four day QPF amounts range from 1-2"
(locally higher) for the western half of Minnesota with 0.25-0.5"
eastward into Wisconsin.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
VFR for most sites this afternoon. Continuing to monitor
two bands of MVFR showers and thunderstorms moving NNE between RNH
and EAU currently. Its possible that either site could briefly see
some precip from either feature hence added a prob30 for
rain/thunder over the next couple of hours. Lingering iso/sct
chances for precip looks to linger into overnight but difficult to
pinpoint exact impacts for any given site thus will monitor and
amend timing/coverage where needed. Gusty southerly winds will
continue this afternoon for areas mainly west of MSP through this
afternoon before falling below 10kts overnight. Forecast soundings
hint at the potential of patchy fog to developing early tomorrow
morning for areas like AXN/STC but felt that winds combined with
warm environmental temps give me a lack of confidence to include any
lines mentioning fog. Tomorrow features high clouds with winds
shifting south-southwesterly at or below 10kts.
KMSP...Given the proximity of current axis of precip to the east and
now developing in southern MN, introduced a prob30 potential for
shra/tsra this afternoon mostly between 22-24z based of off current
radar/forecast trends. Additional redevelopment is possible
overnight although the strongest potential exists more over
Wisconsin. Breezy southerly winds will decrease this evening and
shift SSW`ly tomorrow around 10kts.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
THU...MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
FRI...MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Dunleavy

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion