Saint Petersburg Beach Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

161
FXUS62 KTBW 080545
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
145 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hazardous marine conditions continue through the week.
- Limited heat risk with hot and humid conditions through the
   end of the week.
- Drier and slightly cooler conditions to end the weekend and
   into early next week.
.DISCUSSION...
Large upper ridging extends from the W Gulf over the N FL
Peninsula and into the W Atlantic. Mid to upper level drying
continues to expand from N FL over the area through C FL as seen
in WV imagery, FL soundings and ACARs data. Some deeper moisture
remains over S FL to keep rain chances for mainly low topped
showers SW and S FL locations this afternoon and Thursday. Temps
will continue to remain above climate normals into the 90s with
dew points in the 70s to produce a limited heat risk during
afternoon hours.
A shortwave trough will dig into the SE US Thursday deepen and
meander overhead through the weekend and into early next week
bringing a pattern chance to the region. A cold front is expected
move into Florida Friday then exit S FL Saturday with a chance of
showers or a few storms ahead of and along the front.
High pressure building into the region will bring a slightly
cooler and drier airmass to the area this weekend for FL fall
like conditions. Low temperatures drop into the low to mid 60s and
highs will be in the low to mid 80s into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Drier conditions this morning with clear skies and light ENE
winds thru 12-15Z. Afternoon winds becoming occasionally gusty as
low topped clouds develop after 18Z with VCSH possible in SW
terminals only until around 22Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Breezy winds will produce hazardous marine conditions at times
through the week and into the weekend. Moderately tight pressure
gradient to keep gusty NE-Eerly winds over some coastal waters
around SCEC levels through Thursday with winds around 15-20 knots
and seas 3-5 feet. Gradient tightens increasing winds Friday into
the weekend ahead of a cold front and a SCA may be needed for the
latter part of the week and continuing through Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm temps and humid surface conditions continue with occasionaly
gusty easterly winds and generally low rain chances for mainly
afternoon showers. A cold front is expected to move through the
region this weekend with drier conditions early next week, however
RH values should remain above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  75  90  74 /  10   0  10  10
FMY  91  75  89  73 /  20   0  40  20
GIF  90  73  88  73 /  10   0  30  20
SRQ  91  73  89  73 /  10   0  20  10
BKV  91  69  88  70 /  10   0  20  10
SPG  88  75  87  74 /  10   0  10  10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Davis

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion