Salley, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

189
FXUS62 KCAE 042338
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
738 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect temperatures to warm through the remainder of the week
rising to above normal for Friday and Saturday. A stronger front
moves into the area late this weekend leading to chances for
rain Sunday. Much cooler weather expected next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Mild overnight temperatures.
- Isolated shower possible, but majority of the area remains
  dry.
Upper shortwave moving through the central Appalachians this
evening will keep some shower activity south of a weak surface
front across NC. Highest rain chances should remain just north
of the SC/NC state line this evening, closer to deeper moisture
and better frontogenesis area, but can not rule out a brief
period through 04z where a shower/storm brushes the northern Pee
Dee region. Additional isolated showers across east-central GA
should continue to weaken the further east they travel, mainly
due to loss of heating/instability and a slightly drier area of
air across the Midlands. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies
overnight with generally light winds. Overnight lows will be
slightly milder, with temperatures dropping to the middle 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Muggy conditions to end the week and start the weekend with
  mostly dry weather expected.
Friday and Friday Night: The upper trough over the region
slowly begins to eject more toward the NW, leading to modest
500mb height rises through the day with a very diffuse surface
front likely staying just north of the area. Fairly
unidirectional southwesterly flow throughout the atmosphere
should aid in increasing moisture and bring increased warm
advection as temperatures should reach the low to mid 90s. With
increasing moisture, heat indices could approach near 100F in
some spots during the afternoon. PWAT`s increase to just above
1.5" through the day but forecast soundings continue to indicate
a solid subsidence inversion that likely should inhibit any
shower or storm formation in the afternoon/evening, thus dry
weather is expected to prevail. Dry weather likely continues
overnight with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday and Saturday Night: The upper trough continues to move
toward the NW with an occluded surface low near Hudson Bay
dragging a cold front into the Appalachians throughout the day
Saturday that will likely near FA late in the day before pushing
through on Sunday. Like Friday, temperatures above normal are
likely, in the mid 90s, with heat indices that near 100F during
the afternoon with moisture continuing to increase across the
region (PWAT`s now reaching 1.60-1.75") ahead of the front. With
forcing from the front remaining mostly NW of the area and the
FA being south of the main forcing from the trough, a mostly dry
day is expected. As the front approaches the area toward the
evening, a spotty shower reaching near the Pee Dee region cannot
be ruled out with deeper moisture slowly moving in place.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Cold front moves through the area Sunday with chances for
  showers and isolated storms.
- Cooler and drier weather expected next week behind the front.
Minimal change to the forecast to wrap up the weekend and
through the middle of next week. The cold front is expected to
work through the FA on Sunday where the greatest convergence
along the front should be toward the Eastern Midlands and
Coastal Plain. South of I- 20 is also where the greatest
confidence in PWAT`s exceeding 1.75" is expected with LREF
probabilities reaching 50-70%. This should bring a slight chance
to chance for showers and a couple isolated storms during the
afternoon and into the evening Sunday, especially south of I-20.
Temperatures should start cooling Sunday, but they likely
remain near average.
Behind the front, strong surface high pressure builds into the
Ohio Valley, extending down into the FA as indicated in both of
the mean solutions for the GEFS and EC Ensemble. This area of
high pressure will continue to shift eastward through the
midweek as upper level troughing moves back into the Eastern
CONUS. This leads to fairly high confidence in blended guidance
that temperatures will fall back below normal Monday through
Wednesday. Drier air also looks to accompany this cooler
airmass and thus PoP`s are generally below slight chance through
the period. It continues to appear that the area could find
itself pinned between high pressure ridging into the FA and an
inverted trough off the South Carolina coast, thus breezier
conditions seem possible early in the week with a tightening
pressure gradient.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions likely through the period outside of potential
ground fog at AGS/OGB tonight.
A couple of isolated storms moving into the area from east
central GA. Confidence is low that the activity will reach any
of the terminals, so left mention of it out of the TAFs for now.
However, these cells could pass near AGS/DNL if they hold
together. Outside of that, mid to high level clouds are forecast
through much of the TAF period. With additional increases in
low-level moisture, potential for ground fog exists at AGS and
OGB once again from about 7z-11z. Light and variable to calm
winds expected through about 12z followed by south to southwest
winds from 5-8 kts.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry weather likely through Saturday.
A front will work into the region late this weekend and may
lead to convection on Sunday afternoon.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion