Salt Flat, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

114
FXUS64 KEPZ 192326
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
526 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 523 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms areawide
   Friday afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of heavy
   rain and flooding.
- Drier and warmer weather this weekend into next week. Rain
   chances more limited to area mountains.
- Lowland highs in the lower nineties next week, warmer than
   normal for late September.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1048 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A weak sinusoidal blocking patter will dominate sensible weather
today into tonight. An upper high cruising southern Sonora and
Chihuahua MX today will be influenced by a low amplitude
shortwave migrating across the Desert Southwest. This will help to
enhance large-scale ascent across the Borderland this afternoon
and evening, giving rise to greater coverage in showers and
thunderstorms. Storms will have ample moisture to work with, with
PWATs on this morning`s 12Z sounding landing above the 90th
percentile at 1.3 inches. While instability will be sufficient,
the best shear will stay localized well out of reach for budding
storms. Organization will be struggle today but any storms that
do initiate will be capable of heavy rainfall, enhancing the
flooding risk. The other limiting factor will be convective
debris from the overnight activity. A wide swatch of cloud cover
is evident on visible satellite, which will lead to inhibition,
especially if it refuses to sufficiently clear by late morning.
The shortwave will continue its leisurely tour of New Mexico well
into the evening, with showers likely to persist into early
Friday morning.
Flow of a more zonal persuasion will follow in the wake of the
disturbance on Saturday along with the strengthening of the MX
high pressure. This will lead to a significant decrease in storm
coverage thanks to the dry air intrusion and high pressure
suppressing the moisture plume. Still, recycled moisture will be
enough to give rise to a rogue storm or two across the area high
terrain. Similar conditions will be seen on Sunday. The high
shifts slightly eastward on Monday, allowing for the moisture
plume to snake up its western periphery. This will allow portions
of southwestern NM to see an increase in thunderstorms that
afternoon. A gentle warming trend will take hold through the start
of the work week, then cooling into mid and late week.
Uncertainty runs amuck in the latter portion of the forecast period,
as models and their ensembles diverge. Both the GFS and ECMWF lock
onto a closed low moving inland from the Pacific midweek but differ
in their evolution of the feature. The GFS tracks the low further
south and east into the Desert Southwest, tilting the ridge on its
eastward periphery favorably for a surge of moisture. The enhanced
lift and moisture in this solution would lend itself to widespread
showers and storms. The ECMWF paints a drier picture, taking the low
up into the Great Basin, with a less favorable orientation of the
ridge for widespread precip.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Scattered shwrs and tstms expected through the evening. Primary
aviation concerns will be brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Brief instances of MVFR to IFC conditions will be possible due to
CIGS and VSBY with any vicinity storm. Activity will last through
the evening, diminishing from west to east with activity ending by
05Z for KELP.
Prevailing winds will be light and VRB through the overnight and
morning timeframe with SCT to BKN skies.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
An upper level feature passing through the Desert Southwest today
will bring increased coverage of showers and storms. With ample
moisture, these storms will be efficient rainmakers capable of
burn scar flash flooding. After the ejection of the disturbance,
high pressure will begin to strengthen in Mexico along with drier
air moving in from the west. This will lead to drier conditions
through the weekend, with storms staying localized to the high
terrain. Uncertainty in storm coverage will dominate the forecast
into the next week due to model consistency departures. MinRH will
stay well above critical thresholds with generally light winds,
save for those produced by thunderstorm outflows. Venting will
hover around poor to fair thanks to the light winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  91  70  94 /  50  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca            61  87  61  90 /  30  20  10  10
Las Cruces               61  87  62  90 /  50  20   0  10
Alamogordo               60  86  63  89 /  60  20   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  65  47  67 /  60  20   0  20
Truth or Consequences    59  85  61  88 /  50  20   0  10
Silver City              56  81  57  83 /  40  20   0  20
Deming                   62  90  62  92 /  50  20   0  10
Lordsburg                63  86  64  87 /  30  10   0  10
West El Paso Metro       67  89  69  92 /  50  20   0  10
Dell City                62  90  62  93 /  30  20   0   0
Fort Hancock             68  92  68  95 /  40  20  10  10
Loma Linda               61  82  63  86 /  50  20   0  10
Fabens                   66  90  66  94 /  40  20   0   0
Santa Teresa             64  88  66  91 /  50  20   0  10
White Sands HQ           63  88  66  91 /  60  20  10  10
Jornada Range            61  86  62  89 /  60  20   0  10
Hatch                    61  89  61  92 /  50  20   0  10
Columbus                 64  89  66  92 /  50  20   0  10
Orogrande                60  85  61  88 /  60  20  10  10
Mayhill                  51  77  53  79 /  50  20   0  20
Mescalero                50  76  51  79 /  60  20  10  20
Timberon                 49  74  51  77 /  60  20   0  20
Winston                  49  78  50  81 /  50  20   0  10
Hillsboro                56  86  58  88 /  40  20   0  10
Spaceport                58  85  59  88 /  60  20   0  10
Lake Roberts             50  81  51  83 /  40  20   0  20
Hurley                   57  83  58  86 /  40  10   0  10
Cliff                    59  88  58  88 /  30  10   0  10
Mule Creek               56  83  57  84 /  30  10   0  10
Faywood                  58  83  59  86 /  40  20   0  10
Animas                   63  87  64  88 /  40  20   0  20
Hachita                  61  86  63  88 /  50  10   0  10
Antelope Wells           62  87  64  88 /  40  20   0  20
Cloverdale               60  83  62  83 /  40  20   0  30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...38-Rogers

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion