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Salton City California Weather Forecast Discussion

651
FXUS65 KPSR 130811
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 110 AM MST Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for south-central Arizona through Monday evening.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect south-central Arizona through Monday with the heaviest rainfall potential and greatest flood threat over higher terrain areas north and east of Phoenix.

- Below normal temperatures will be common throughout the week.

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.SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/... Deepening western Conus troughing was evident on early morning WV imagery with an intense PV center digging south along the northern California coast. Favorable downstream jet positioning has placed the forecast area under broad scale right entrance region ascent tapping a pool of 12-15 g/kg mixing ratios covering the southern half of Arizona. This pattern will hold over the CWA for the next 24 hours before the influence of the upstream troughing and increased SW flow erodes and sweeps the anomalous moisture away from the region. In the interim, models continue to exhibit difficulty in identifying shortwaves and boundaries within the stronger flow responsible for deep convection, and as a result, forecast timing and locations vary widely among modeling suites. Per WV imagery, it appears there is one wave shearing through western/northern Arizona aiding in elevated showers across the area early this morning, while another wave propagating into northern Sonora should be absorbed into the SW flow and assist in large scale ascent by this afternoon.

While HREF members have largely been far too aggressive with forecast shower and thunderstorm coverage so far this morning, the pattern remains conducive towards elevated convective development towards sunrise given MUCape nearing 1000 J/kg despite poor midlevel lapse rates. Should sufficient updrafts be maintained, some locally heavy rainfall will be possible given the moisture content and evidence of warm rain processes. However, kinematic wind structure through the atmosphere does not look as favorable for training echoes as compared to yesterday, and better confidence exists that any activity will lift north of the forecast area through the morning.

This should set the stage for a final round of thunderstorms and heavy rain threat early this afternoon in response to shortwave energy lifting north into the eastern portions of the CWA. Some partial clearing may be achieved briefly late this morning allowing MLCape to increase into a 500-1000 J/kg range over south-central AZ given the lingering 11-12 g/kg boundary layer mixing ratios. Drier air will quickly be surging into SW Arizona during this evolution essentially precluding any convection southwest of the Phoenix metro. While thunderstorm coverage, rainfall intensity, and maintenance over a persistent area will likely be less than previous days, fully saturated soils have resulted in higher runoff efficiencies and require less accumulation for flooding issues. Therefore, a Flood Watch continues through this evening across south- central AZ. In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, an isolated strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible given 0-6 km shear near 40kt remains in place supporting some organized storm structure.

Forecast confidence is very good that forcing mechanisms and associated storms will quickly lift into northern Arizona this evening leaving just some lingering light showers over the mountains of the eastern CWA. Boundary layer moisture will be scoured even further by Tuesday afternoon while midlevel temperatures warm modestly in response to jet energy lifting north essentially ending rainfall chances. Given the robust height falls entering SE California juxtaposed with a deepening marine layer, downsloping winds and hydraulic jumps appear likely both late this afternoon and Tuesday. Strong gusty winds will be common in the typical wind prone areas of western Imperial County potentially lofting some dust assuming soils have dried sufficiently since the last rainfall event.

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.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Deep negative height anomalies will be lifting and filling into the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the middle of the week bringing pronounced, dry westerly flow into the forecast area. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer moisture rapidly deteriorating during the middle of the week with mixing ratios falling to 5-6 g/kg as early as Wednesday, then never recovering thereafter. Ensemble membership remains in excellent agreement that energy lifting north will leave a trailing, weak trough axis over the SW Conus with H5 heights stuck mostly in a 572-578dm range. Ensemble numerical spread has widened slightly during this period, however still indicates temperatures hovering 4F-8F below normal for much of the latter half of the week. By the weekend, there is good model agreement that some form of shortwave ridging will build into the SW Conus with H5 heights spiking closer to 585dm and temperatures rebounding into a near normal range.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0606Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Radar this evening shows vicinity light to moderate showers across the Phoenix area, while lower CIGs are beginning to set in over the terminals. Expect continued shower activity throughout the overnight hours, while confidence in any VCTS near the terminals during this time is low. Better confidence exists for showers and thunderstorms developing tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

Any thunderstorm activity is currently expected to last through the afternoon before tapering off in the evening. Any heavy showers/storms may result in brief MVFR visibilities. In terms of cloud cover, SCT-BKN clouds are expected to continue to lower down to around 3-5 kft overnight tonight with a 20-30% chance of MVFR CIGs overnight through early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, SCT-BKN clouds are expected to remain mostly aoa 5 kft during the afternoon. Winds will predominantly favor an easterly component before transitioning to a breezy southerly crosswind component with some gusts upwards of 20 kts going into tomorrow afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will predominantly favor the W at KIPL and S-SW at KBLH. Speeds will remain light, aob 8 kts, through tomorrow morning before gusts upwards of around 25-30 kts are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon. Given the strong winds, surface/slantwise visibilities may be reduced at times due to blowing dust.

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.FIRE WEATHER... Wetting rain chances will continue today over eastern districts with locally heavy amounts and flooding possible. Drier air across western districts will begin sweeping through the entire region Tuesday. Elevated moisture levels will keep humidity levels in eastern districts above 50% today, then minimum values falling closer to a 40-50% range during the middle of the week and drying further to 25-35% by the weekend. Western districts will generally experience afternoon humidity values 25-35% early this week, then closer to 15-25% late in the week. Erratic and locally gusty winds will common around showers and thunderstorms with more widespread gusty winds affecting the region Tuesday afternoon/evening. Very tranquil conditions will be common late in the week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Flood Watch through this evening for AZZ534-537>563. CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM...18 AVIATION...Smith FIRE WEATHER...18

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion

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