San Carlos, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

690
FXUS64 KBRO 141112 AAB
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
612 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Despite light onshore east-southeasterly surface winds, slight
ridging and increased subsidence aloft is likely to reduce
probabilities of showers and thunderstorms to a low (20-30%) chance
this afternoon, limited to the Rio Grande Plains (Starr and Zapata
counties), where upper level divergence will be slightly more
favorable. Meanwhile, weakness between mid-level highs over the
eastern Midwest and northern-central Mexico will allow for a trough
swinging through the Plains to induce a weak mid-level low over
south Texas tonight, fostering coastal troughing along Deep South
Texas` coast and increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms,
beginning tomorrow, Monday. Coastal troughing is expected to
remain persistent into next week, resulting in a daily low to
medium (30-60%) chances of showers and thunderstorms through
Friday as several mid-level disturbances pass over the region
from another trough deepening across the Plains into the middle
and later part of this week. Convective activity is anticipated to
increase each day along the seabreeze boundary, increasing PoP`s
throughout the morning as the boundary progresses westward,
maximizing in the afternoon, with the highest PoP`s east of
US-281/I-69 C and closer to the coast, bringing the potential for
lightning, brief heavy downpours and some gusty winds. PoP`s may
decrease throughout next weekend as the mid-level high over
northern Mexico expands.
The other focus of the forecast is the moderate risk for rip
currents due to moderate easterly winds producing elevated surf (2-4
feet) and 6-7 second periods, likely to continue through at least
midweek. Please keep in mind that the majority of rip current-
related deaths along the Lower Texas Coast have occurred on days in
which the risk of rip currents was moderate. Additionally, resulting
water levels of 1.0-1.2 ft Mean Higher High Water (MHHW), with minor
coastal flooding possible within a few hours of high tide the next
several nights, leading to the possibility of additional Coastal
Flood Statements.
Temperatures are expected to remain near average, with afternoon
highs generally in the low to mid 90`s inland, though a few areas
across the Rio Grande Plains may hit upper 90`s, especially towards
the end of the week as subsidence aloft enhances to the west.
Overnight lows continue to fall into the low to mid 70`s inland and
lower 80`s closer to the immediate coastline. Highs along the coast
continue in the mid 80`s. Maximum afternoon heat indices of 100-105
degF are expected across most of the RGV and the coastal counties,
leaving to mainly minor (level 1 of 4) heat risks, though enhanced
humidity levels closer to the coast may yield moderate (level 2 of
4) heat risks.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period at
all TAF sites. Generally easterly to southeasterly winds are
expected with winds becoming more gusty late this morning and
persisting through the afternoon. While winds are expected to
diminish this evening, they should remain mostly out of the east
to southeast. Chances for rain remain low (less than 30 percent)
for today and tonight with drier air over the region. However,
chances of rain start to increase towards the end of the TAF
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Mostly moderate easterly to southeasterly winds and moderate (3-4
ft) seas continue into Friday, becoming gentle to moderate with
slight to moderate (2-3 ft) seas next weekend. Chances of showers
and thunderstorms return this evening, persisting into next
weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  77  91  76 /  20  30  60  30
HARLINGEN               94  73  93  72 /  20  10  60  20
MCALLEN                 96  76  96  75 /  20  10  50  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  73  95  72 /  40  10  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  81  87  80 /  10  40  60  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  76  90  76 /  10  30  60  30
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...64-Katz

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion