San Miguel, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

796
FXUS64 KEPZ 292317 AAA
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
517 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 514 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Thunderstorms will return to the higher terrain of New Mexico
   this afternoon, but dry conditions are expected area-wide
   beginning Tuesday.
- Temperatures will climb to around 5 to 8 degrees above normal
   by Thursday, as a drier air mass takes over. Southerly winds
   may also become a little breezy Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
An upper level trough that has been draped over NM the past few
days will lift out of the region tonight. Before the trough exits,
there is still a 20-30% chance for showers and storms thru late
this evening mainly north of a line from Silver City to T or C and
Alamogordo. PWATs are still close to 1" with light steering flow
so a couple cells may produce very localized heavy rainfall. Some
near-term hi-res model guidance is hinting that a weak outflow
boundary from these storms may drift south toward Deming and Las
Cruces this evening with a slight chance for additional showers
and broken cloud cover to form. Otherwise, the remainder of the
night is likely to see gradually clearing skies with perhaps a
few patchy areas of low cigs near the high terrain.
Weak upper level ridging is expected to crest over the region
Tuesday with warming temps, light winds, and slightly lower
humidity. The upper ridge will break down quickly Tuesday night
then give way to zonal flow Wednesday. Temps will continue to
trend warmer with even drier air sliding into the region. A
stronger upper level ridge will build over northern MX Thursday
and Friday with temps trending around 5-10 degrees above normal.
Precip chances Wednesday thru Friday will be near zero with high
confidence. Southerly winds may trend a tad breezy toward this
weekend as the next upper level trough moves into the Great Basin.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Showers may impact KTCS with gusty winds and brief VFR cigs
through 02Z, otherwise VFR conditions prevail and are forecast
to persist through the TAF period with mostly light winds
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
There are no significant fire weather concerns through at least
Friday. A few showers and storms over portions of the area thru
this evening will have potential to produce small footprints of
heavy rainfall. Drier air will push into even more of the region
Tuesday. However, there will be very low chances of showers or
storms over the high terrain within the Gila and Sacramento Mts.
Wednesday thru Friday will feature an upper level high building
over northern MX with increasing temps, light winds, and lowering
humidity each day. The ridge is likely to break down quickly by
Saturday as an upper level trough approaches from the Great Basin.
Southerly winds increase over the weekend with minimum humidity
falling into the 15 to 20% range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  85  64  89  65 /  20  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            79  54  83  55 /  30  10   0   0
Las Cruces               81  58  84  58 /  20  10   0   0
Alamogordo               80  58  83  59 /  50  20   0   0
Cloudcroft               59  42  63  43 /  60  30  10   0
Truth or Consequences    79  57  83  58 /  40  20   0   0
Silver City              75  53  78  53 /  30  20  10   0
Deming                   83  57  87  58 /  20  10   0   0
Lordsburg                82  58  83  59 /  20  20   0   0
West El Paso Metro       82  64  86  63 /  20  10   0   0
Dell City                82  56  86  57 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             86  62  89  63 /  40  10   0   0
Loma Linda               76  58  80  59 /  40  10   0   0
Fabens                   84  61  88  61 /  30  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             81  59  85  60 /  20  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           80  62  84  62 /  30  10   0   0
Jornada Range            79  58  83  58 /  30  10   0   0
Hatch                    82  58  86  58 /  20  20   0   0
Columbus                 83  60  87  60 /  20  10   0   0
Orogrande                78  57  82  57 /  20  10   0   0
Mayhill                  70  48  75  48 /  70  30  10   0
Mescalero                71  46  75  48 /  60  30  10   0
Timberon                 68  46  71  47 /  60  20   0   0
Winston                  73  46  76  47 /  40  30  10   0
Hillsboro                79  54  83  55 /  50  30  10   0
Spaceport                78  56  82  55 /  30  20   0   0
Lake Roberts             76  47  79  48 /  40  30  10   0
Hurley                   78  53  81  53 /  30  20   0   0
Cliff                    82  54  85  55 /  20   0   0   0
Mule Creek               78  52  81  53 /  20  10   0   0
Faywood                  76  55  80  55 /  30  30   0   0
Animas                   83  57  85  58 /  30  30   0   0
Hachita                  81  56  84  57 /  20  20   0   0
Antelope Wells           83  57  85  59 /  30  30   0   0
Cloverdale               78  56  81  58 /  30  30   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...99

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion