Sand Hill Cemetery Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

005
FXUS64 KFWD 140546
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1246 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a chance of storms this weekend, otherwise above normal
  temperatures and dry weather can be expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/
The dominance of a mid level ridge will continue to be the primary
story in the short-term, with above-normal temperatures and dry
conditions expected through the midweek period. Fortunately, highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s will not approach any record
temperatures. In fact, Waco reached 100 on October 15 of last
year. Nighttime temperatures will remain rather pleasant with
lows in the 50s and 60s. Despite the dry air and recent lack of
rain, light winds should keep the overall fire weather threat in
check.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night Onward/
The ridge will shift east during the second half of the week as a
West Coast upper trough works its way slowly east towards the
Plains. A lee-side surface cyclone will intensify as the upper
trough traverses the Rockies Thursday and Friday, tightening the
surface pressure gradient and increasing the southerly low level
flow across North and Central Texas. Conditions will become breezy
as a result, with south winds increasing to 10-20 MPH with
occasional higher gusts.
Low level moisture return will be sufficient for the development
of low clouds Thursday night and Friday night, but deep layer
moisture will be less than impressive when the axis of the upper
trough passes through the Southern Plains over the weekend.
Scattered showers and isolated storms will still be possible late
Friday through late Saturday, with an attendant surface front
being a focus for convection, but the limited moisture may keep
areal coverage on the conservative side. Will maintain chance to
slight chance POPs at this time, with the best chances being east
of I-35 where the higher moisture content will reside. Deep layer
shear and instability should be sufficient for a few strong storms
with small hail and gusty winds, but the overall severe threat
appears low at this time.
The upper trough will continue its eastward trek to the
Mississippi Valley while the cold front heads for the Gulf Coast
Saturday night through Sunday. This will bring an end to the brief
rain chances while dropping temperatures closer to seasonable
values to start next week. Despite the passage of the front (and
slightly cooler air), however, a ridge will quickly strengthen
overhead in the wake of the exiting trough, which will keep
temperatures above-normal for the first half of next week.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/
The positioning of a surface ridge to the northeast of the region
will keep light east to southeast winds in place through Tuesday
night. High pressure aloft will otherwise maintain VFR and
tranquil aviation weather through the end of the TAF period. Will
keep the simple one-line TAFs in place while the quiet weather
lasts.
30
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                61  87  60  86  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               60  86  58  86  63 /   0   0   5   0   0
Denton              60  87  58  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            60  87  58  86  65 /   0   0   5   0   0
Dallas              66  88  63  88  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             60  87  58  87  64 /   0   0   5   0   0
Corsicana           62  89  62  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              59  88  58  87  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       60  89  58  88  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion