802 FXUS63 KMKX 142037 AFDMKXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 337 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A period of light rain is likely (~50-75%) for much of southern Wisconsin tonight. The chance of rain quickly lowers Wednesday morning.
- Active end to the week with breezy conditions and several opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday.
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.SHORT TERM... Issued 251 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Tonight through Wednesday night:
A weak 500mb wave and 850mb WAA and fgen will slide east and southeast over the region this afternoon into tonight. While thunder isn`t expected, rain will occur over the area, with accumulation between a tenth to a quarter of an inch into tomorrow morning. Precipitation should then slowly shrink and dissipate Wednesday morning. Conditions should then remain dry, before WAA driven rain move in from the west early Thursday.
CMiller
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.LONG TERM... Issued 317 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Thursday through Tuesday:
WAA related rain is expected to lift northeast of the area during the day on Thursday. Temperatures will rise for Friday, with highs in the upper 70s and breezy south winds. A cold front is then expected to move in Friday into Saturday, with varying solutions across the global models regarding timing. Euro and Canadian solutions favor a slower frontal progression that would have showers and thunderstorms lingering through Saturday afternoon, while the GFS pushes the front through quickly by Saturday morning, leading to a relatively dry Saturday. Given model discrepancies, it is a bit too early to definitively answer whether or not Saturday will be dry. Trends will be monitored heading toward the weekend.
CMiller
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.AVIATION... Issued 302 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
MVFR continues along the lakeshore, while high VFR clouds have moved overhead inland. Rain is moving in from the west, mainly west of KMSN, with some light rain reported. Rain is expected to spread over the area through tonight, with MVFR and IFR ceilings expected over most of southern WI. Winds will remain light to moderate and northeasterly overnight.
CMiller
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.MARINE... Issued 253 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
High pressure of 30.5 inches over northern Minnesota will sink southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes region through Thursday morning. As this happens, breezy north winds will occur tonight, with speeds easing going into Wednesday. Winds remain light going into Thursday, but should come around to southeasterly and become breezy again Thursday night into Friday morning as low pressure of 29.3 inches moves into south central Canada.
CMiller
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.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM Wednesday.
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion