Santa Catalina Elementary School California Weather Forecast Discussion

085
FXUS66 KMTR 151632
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
932 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 106 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025
- Warming and drying trend kicks off today and lasts through
   Saturday
- Long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk of
   sneaker waves and rip currents to Pacific Coast beaches by
   Saturday
- Unsettled weather possibly returns Sunday
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Drying conditions will return to the region today. Temperatures may
be cooler than previously forecast for today, as low clouds linger
across much of the region. These clouds are forecast to clear out
across the Central Coast this afternoon, but may not clear until
this evening across the North Bay and Bay Area. Temperatures remain
about 10-20 degrees F below seasonal averages with a gradual warming
trend through Saturday.
RGass
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 106 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025
(Today and tonight)
Isolated rain shower activity will continue to wane through the
morning with dry conditions expected by daybreak or shortly there
after. A warming and drying trend kicks off today as upper-level
shortwave ridging nudges the mid-to-upper level low east. It
certainly won`t feel like it though with widespread temperatures
of 10-20 degrees below normal. Patchy frost will be possible
tonight for far interior portions of Monterey and San Benito
Counties. Frost or not, it is going to be cold and proper
precautions should be taken to protect people, pets, and plants.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 106 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025
(Thursday through Tuesday)
By tomorrow, surface high pressure will build into the Pacific
Northwest which will create a northerly (drying) gradient across the
state. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the Great
Basin Friday into Saturday with a coastal trough developing off the
coast of California. This pattern will facilitate textbook offshore
flow as pressure flows from high to low and winds follow suit. Both
of these patterns will be no cause for concern fire weather (or
other) wise with the recent widespread wetting rainfall putting a
damper, but not quite an end, to fire weather season. Global
ensemble clusters are in agreement that a cut-off low will get
pinched off from leftover troughing from the beginning of the
forecast period with heights falling by Sunday. What that means
for us is still up in the air (literally). A cut-off low is
uncertain by nature due to it`s independence from the jet stream,
but the big question here is what kind of flow regime are we going
to be in? Heights rising? Heights falling? Split flow where it`s
some combination of both? Zonal? It`s difficult to say, but either
way it does not look to be impactful no matter the solution. The
deterministic ECMWF and GFS both have an upper-level longwave
trough moving into the region Sunday. The ECMWF has a quicker
solution while the GFS has a slower, deeper solution that would be
able to absorb the cut-off low back into the jet stream. As of
now the forecast is dry, but there is still a significant amount
of spread amongst total precipitation ensembles. For now, I would
expect an increase in cloud cover and winds over the weekend.
Unfortunately this uncertainty will impact the confidence in the
forecast at the beginning of next week; thus, it is uncertain on
if heights will rebuild or if the aforementioned trough will
continue to dig.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 436 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Departing system and lingering low level moisture has led to a
mixed bag of lingering showers and MVFR cigs. That being said,
conditions do continue to gradually improve and will so through
the AM rush. Expect VFR this afternoon with a few fair weather CU.
clearing skies tonight will also for some patchy stratus to
develop.  Conf is moderate overall.
Vicinity of SFO...CIGS 2500-3500 will lingering through 17-18Z
based on satellite trends and latest guidance. About a 10-20% chc
for a VCSH, but not high enough to include in TAF. Winds mainly
light to moderate. Some SCT CU this afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Could see a lower CIGS
occasional cause issues with visuals through AM rush.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR to VFR conditions this AM. VFR this
afternoon with MVFR cigs develop tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 932 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Weather conditions improve today through late week as the low
pressure systems departs. Light winds persist across the waters
today, increasing to a fresh breeze Thursday afternoon. A longer
period northwesterly swell will arrive over the weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Behringer
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion