Santa Clara Indian Reservation New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

156
FXUS65 KABQ 131145 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
545 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 534 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
- Flooding of small creeks, streams and arroyos, as well as low-
  lying areas, will be a concern where repeated rounds of
  precipitation occur through Tuesday night. The flash flood risk
  will be minimal but as remnant moisture from Tropical Storm
  Raymond crosses today through Tuesday morning, isolated flash
  flooding remains a concern, especially over the burn scars near
  Ruidoso. Elevated flows in main stem rivers will also possible.
- Dry and breezy conditions will return Thursday through the end
  of the week.
- Freezing temperatures are expected for much of northern, western
  and portions of central New Mexico Friday morning. This will be
  the first freeze of the season for areas in the Estancia Valley,
  San Agustin Plains and areas near Reserve. Should these areas
  not freeze Friday morning, a higher probability for the first
  freeze will exist for these zones along with the northeast
  highlands on Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 110 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
A complex pattern remains over the region early this morning. The
forecast area remains under moist southwest flow between a closed
upper low along the Pacific NW coast diving south and an upper high
over South Texas. Between these upper level systems is the remnant
moisture of Raymond from the eastern Pacific over southeast AZ and
southwest NM. Finally, a backdoor front is moving through northeast
and east central NM in the wake of an upper low over south central
Canada. Drier surface air is being observed behind this backdoor
front with dewpoints in the 20s and 30s across northeast NM. Cannot
rule out a few showers across east central NM along this backdoor
front through mid this morning. This backdoor front will squeeze
through the gaps of the central mountain chain around to just after
sunrise bringing a gusty southeast canyon wind to the ABQ and Santa
Fe Metros throughout the day Monday. The southwest flow between the
upper low and upper high will pull the remnant moisture of Raymond
northeast into western parts of the forecast area later this morning
with shower and embedded thunderstorms increasing in coverage
heading into the afternoon. Widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms will move east northeast into central NM, including
the ABQ and Santa Fe Metros, come the late afternoon and evening
hours. Brisk storm motion to the northeast and limited instability
should help limit the flash flood risk, but multiple rounds of
rainfall could result in localized areas of flash flooding in
normally flood prone areas and recent burn scars. Temperatures will
generally be slightly to several degrees below average across the
forecast area due to the widespread cloud cover and precipitation
along with the effects of the backdoor front across central and
eastern NM. For the Ruidoso area burn scars, most shower and
embedded thunderstorm activity will remain mostly west and northwest
of the area until the evening with better shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity overnight as Raymond`s remnant moisture moves
more overhead. Did not have enough confidence to issue a Flash Flood
Watch for the zone due to limited instability resulting in lower
rainfall rates. Shower and embedded thunderstorm activity will be
focused over central and eastern NM overnight Monday into Tuesday
due to Raymond`s remnant moisture shifting to these areas of the
state. Meanwhile, low clouds and patchy fog will likely develop
across western and eventually central NM in the wake of this shower
and thunderstorm activity due to nearly saturated low levels.
On Tuesday, the state will still remain in between the
aforementioned upper low over the central California and the upper
high over the southern Great Plains. Drier air looks to move into
northwest and west central NM with PWATS around to just below 0.5
inches across these parts of the state. Above average PWATs between
0.75 and 1.3 inches will remain across central and eastern NM due to
moist southeast surface flow. Raymond`s remnant moisture will exit
northeast of the state by late Tuesday morning. However, the higher
moisture still in place, along with a corridor of slightly better
instability due to partial clearing, will allow from scattered to
numerous shower and thunderstorm development across the central
mountain chain and nearby lower elevations during the afternoon and
evening hours with a quick motion to the northeast. Shower and
thunderstorm activity across central NM could last well into the
overnight hours due to favorable upper level divergence and large
scale ascent ahead of the upper low circulation over Nevada.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 110 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be mainly focused
across north central NM as drier air moves into more of western NM
due to the upper low moving northeast over the central Great Basin.
By Thursday, the upper low moves over the northern Rockies allowing
a Pacific cold front and much drier westerly flow behind it to move
through the forecast area. Temperatures will cool down below average
across western NM behind the Pacific front. Cannot rule out a stray
shower or storm across far eastern NM near the Texas border where
some higher moisture will linger. Some gusty southwest winds across
northeast NM Thursday afternoon due to the development of a ~ 1000
mb surface lee low across southeast CO. Clear skies and CAA will
allow for efficient radiational cooling Thursday night into Friday
morning resulting in more typical chilly temperatures for mid
October. Upper 20s to mid 30s will be common across northern and
western NM with 40s to near 50 across the middle RGV and eastern
plains. Dry westerly flow and fall like temperatures will encompass
the entire state by Friday. Breezy conditions will exist along
the lee slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Friday afternoon
due to the development of a weak surface low across northeast NM
and southeast CO. Moderate probabilities exist for locations
across the San Augustin Plains and Estancia Basin to see the
first fall freeze on Friday morning and for the northeast
highlands on Saturday morning. This will be about 1 to 2 weeks
later than the average first freeze for these locations. Dry
northwest flow with seasonable fall temperatures is favored for
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Shower and embedded thunderstorm activity in AZ is currently
moving into western TAF sites. Localized MVFR conditions will
exist with these showers. Meanwhile, some isolated showers with
VFR conditons across east central NM through mid morning along a
backdoor front. The backdoor front moves through the gaps of the
central mountain chain during the mid morning hours resulting in a
gusty east canyon wind for KABQ and KSAF through most of the
remaining TAF period. Low probability (

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion